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2010
Libertarian
Candidates

Governor
Dale Ogden

Lieutenant
Governor
Pamela Brown

Secretary of State
Christina Tobin

Attorney General
Timothy Hannan

Controller
Andrew Favor, CPA

Treasurer
Edward Teyssier

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Richard Bronstein

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Gail Lightfoot

Peter De Baets
for Board of Equalization,
District 4

Herb Peters
for Congress
36th District

Carlos Rodriguez
for Congress
28th District

Ethan Musulin
for State Assembly
53rd District

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Biography of
Dale Ogden

 

Statesman

Dale Ogden

Libertarian
for Governor of California
Vote for the “Liberator”

Individual Freedom
Personal Responsibility
Minimum Government
Minimum Taxes

Free Minds & Free Markets
(with acknowledgement to the Reason Foundation)

Help Pay Off Campaign Debt
for Dale Ogden
for Governor of California

General Election
Tuesday, November 2, 2010

150,898 votes (1.5%)
Final Election Results
(less than 7 cents per vote)

Click here to go directly
to my Platform

Are you tired of Democrats and Republicans
fighting over how to spend YOUR money?
then vote for Dale Ogden,
Libertarian!
I’ll put YOUR money back in YOUR pocket!

John and Ken, KFI AM 640
Pick Dale Ogden for Governor

IMG_6469

My Recommendations
on the Ballot Initiatives

Cost Of State Regulations On
California Small Businesses Study

Highlights: “The study finds that the total cost of regulation to the State of California is $493 billion [rounded] which is almost five times the State’s general fund budget, and… results in an employment loss of 3.8 million jobs… the regulatory cost is borne almost completely by small business... the indirect business taxes that would have been generated due to the output lost arising from the regulatory cost is $16 billion [rounded]…”

“The government is best which
governs least.” — Henry David Thoreau

“I think we have more machinery of government than is necessary, too many parasites living on the labor of the industrious.” --Thomas Jefferson

“It is by compromise that human rights have
been abandoned.” — Charles Sumner

“Small Government is Beautiful.”
 — Carla Howell

“The naked truth is always better than the best dressed lie.” — Ann Landers, born 1918

“Facts do not cease to exist because
they are ignored.” — Aldous Huxley

“I would remind you that extremism in the
defense of liberty is no vice! And let me remind
you also that moderation in the pursuit of
justice is no virtue.” –Barry Goldwater

For more information, e-mail
info@dalefogden.org

To contact the candidate, e-mail
dfo@dalefogden.org

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Campaign for Governor

Dale Ogden’s Biography

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www.dalefogden.net

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Dale Ogden’s Interview with the
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on KTVU

 “Let’s work to make California the Great State it once was,
where people come to work, take care of their families,
and live the American Dream, not a place that businesses flee,
where deadbeats come for overpaid government jobs and welfare.”

Freedom Works, Government Doesn’t

John and Ken, KFI AM 640
Endorse Dale Ogden for Governor

Wayne Allyn Root, FOX News Regular & Best-Selling Author,
2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and
Chairman, Libertarian National Congressional Committee,
endorses Dale Ogden for Governor of California
(click here to read the endorsement)

“There is nothing that will help our children and our children’s children become happy and prosperous than freedom. Freedom to learn what they want to learn, however they wish to learn it. Freedom to work or start a business without government interference. Freedom to live their lives as they choose, not as politicians and bureaucrats choose. There is nothing I want for my son more than his being a happy, productive, and self-sufficient adult.

“Greed is the result of feeling ‘entitled’ to something. Government social welfare programs create entitlements. A helping hand is not a hand out. Politicians and bureaucrats believe they are entitled to their excessive paychecks and obscene pensions and benefits, and that they are exempt from following the rules under which they force the rest of us to live. Personal prosperity comes from earning what you have, such as through physical labor, invention, and investment, and is good; greed is wanting what someone else has earned, being a parasite on society, through taxes and transfer payments and is evil.” — Dale Ogden, October 12, 2010

“Each State, in ratifying the Constitution, is considered as a sovereign body, independent of all others, and only to be bound by its own voluntary act. In this relation, then, the new Constitution will, if established, be a FEDERAL, and not a NATIONAL constitution.” — James Madison, Federalist No. 39

“But as the plan of the convention aims only at a partial union or consolidation, the State governments would clearly retain all the rights of sovereignty which they before had, and which were not, by that act, EXCLUSIVELY delegated to the United States.” — Alexander Hamilton, Federalist No. 32

“Only when the state is restricted to the administration of justice, and economic creativity thus freed from arbitrary restraints, will conditions exist for making possible a lasting improvement in the welfare of the more miserable peoples of the world.” — Karen Kwiatkowski, “The Wolf You Feed” [August 31, 2010]

“Always vote for principle, though you may vote alone, and you may cherish the sweetest reflection that your vote is never lost.” — John Quincy Adams

Where I Stand and
What I Would Do As Governor

The only way to create productive jobs is to get the government out of the way and let free people start businesses and work. The state government cannot create productive, wealth-enhancing jobs; all they can do is create bureaucratic, wealth-consuming jobs, by taxing the private, productive sector and giving it to the public, non-productive sector and the other parasites of society.

As Governor, I pledge to restore fiscal responsibility to the State of California and will use every tool at my disposal, including the line-item veto, the federal and state courts, and the Ballot Initiative Process, to restore California to the great state it once was. The line item veto is a very powerful tool with which the Governor can stop wasteful spending, eliminate harmful, useless, and duplicative regulatory agencies, downsize other state agencies, roll back out-of-control spending, and reduce bloated salaries, benefits and pensions for state employees. Accomplishing this will require the following and more:

1.  First and most importantly, we need to permanently roll-back spending to or below the level of 1998 (adjusted for inflation and population) and absolutely limit future spending increases (excess revenue should be used to retire debt or returned to the people). Does any rational person believe that California did not have enough government in 1998? or in 1988? I will never sign a budget that does not reduce spending to those levels. There should be absolutely no borrowing for the State’s general fund. [see Daily Breeze April 1, 2010, editorial]

2.  We need to roll-back the excessive salaries and bloated pensions for state employees (see PensionTsunami.com: “...approaching wave of pension debt is a lot bigger than it looks...and [is] about to drown America’s taxpayers.”). One estimate is that government pensions in California are underfunded by $500 billion, half a trillion dollars. We may need to use the federal courts to accomplish some of this. We need to eliminate all “double-dipping” and increase the retirement age for current and future state employees to at least 65 (from its current 50 or 55), like Social Security and the private sector.

A few thoughts from Dale Ogden about how to solve the problems created by overly generous California government employee pensions: The problem cannot be fixed merely by lowering pensions for new hires without retroactively reducing pensions for some of those still working and for some of those already retired.

The State of California, like all 50 states, is sovereign and can unilaterally reduce pensions, retroactively, to accruals of 2% of base salary per year (the way it was prior to 1999), based on the average of last five or ten years of base salary (rather than the highest year), with perhaps a maximum accrual of 80% after 40 years (or 70% after 35 years). A monetary threshold should also be established such as “All pensions that exceed $80,000 per year (or twice the median income in the state) will be reduced to $80,000. Overtime pay should be excluded from consideration.

Normal retirement should be at age 65, maybe 60 for police and fire fighters (but only for real police and fire fighters). Employees should not be eligible to receive payments until retirement age or there may be cost-neutral (i.e., no cost to the state) actuarial reductions available for early retirement. There also should be a re-evaluation of all disability retirements (a scam used by much of law enforcement), especially for those who retired and worked at other jobs.

CPI adjustments to the first $40,000 (or statewide median income, which could also adjusted for CPI).

There should be no pensions for anyone who worked less than 5 years, and no pensions for elected or appointed officials. And no lifetime free health care for those who work only five years. Maybe increase that to 25-30 years or eliminate it completely.

Outlaw government employee unions for state workers. Prosecute Jerry Brown, Gray Davis, and the many others who colluded with unions to defraud California taxpayers.

No double dipping or triple dipping.

Defined contribution plans for new hires and anyone who has been employed by the State for less than ten years.

Maybe these adjustments would be enough to make the pension funds solvent; maybe not. They certainly would reduce the future costs significantly. These reduced benefits are still more generous than 90% or more of the private sector.

3.  We need to stop collusion between politicians, bureaucrats and government employee unions. Far too often, public employee unions give money and free “volunteer” labor to politicians for their campaigns. The politicians return the favor by agreeing to excessive increases in salaries, pensions and other benefits. And far too often, those who actually negotiate the salaries and pensions also benefit from them. This must stop immediately. No elected or appointed official should ever get a pension or any other benefits after they leave office. [see Public-sector unions Bleed Taxpayers… by Michael Barone]

“Private-sector unionism is adversarial... Public-sector unionism... is not adversarial but collusive... The results are plain to see. States like New York, New Jersey and California, where public-sector unions are strong, now face enormous budget deficits and pension liabilities. In such states, the public sector has become a parasite sucking the life out of the private-sector economy... Americans have been steadily migrating out of such states and into states like Texas, where public-sector unions are weak and taxes are much lower... Public-sector unionism tends to be a self-perpetuating machine that extracts money from taxpayers and then puts it on a conveyor belt to the Democratic Party...”

4.  We need to (a) abolish useless and harmful state licensing and regulatory agencies and repeal thousands of useless and often harmful regulations, creating a rational, business-friendly state and (b) abolish the state personal and corporate income taxes and capital gains taxes (they will no longer be needed). This will create millions of jobs as entrepreneurs, investors, and businesses (and, did I mention, millions of jobs) are attracted to California.

5.  I support making the Legislature part-time, like it was prior to 1966. Texas has very similar demographics to California, but no state income tax and a part-time legislature; Texas also has a budget surplus and one-third lower unemployment: (according to the U. S. Department of Labor (BLS), as of February 2010, unemployment was 8.2% in Texas and 12.5% in California). As was stated in an 1866 New York court case, “No man’s life, liberty, or property is safe while the Legislature is in session.” (see Citizens for California Reform).

6.  Repeal the global warming (i.e., carbon limits) laws that the idiots in the state legislature have already passed and that our idiot-in-chief Governor signed. Check out this article (11/20/2009) and this one (12/9/2009) [Climategate: Gore falsifies the record], about the “stolen” emails admitting that the climate “scientists” distort and hide data. The scandal grows each day as the self-anointed climate “scientists” and others (e.g., Al Gore) who have perpetrated this fraud try to ignore the evidence and continue their efforts to scam the citizens of the world. [More on Global Warming]

7.  Education: Many people have asked me how I plan to “fix” education. One thing is certain; fixing education does not require more money. In fact, the more money we spend the worse it gets. As Governor, my first step to improving education would be to get the State out of education and let the cities and counties deal with it. Let parents have vouchers to spend at their school of choice. We waste phenomenal amounts of money at the state and federal levels educating no one, and we have duplicative agencies. Most government school systems have too many administrators. The more decentralized education becomes, the better it will be. Give people choices.

8.  My governing philosophy is to have the government do only those few things that it must do and try to do them well. All else should be left to private individuals who are in the best position to decide what they need, what they want, and how to achieve personal fulfillment.

9. Immigration has become a hot issue, but it is not a simple issue. America is a land of immigrants, e Pluribus Unum (out of many, one). Freedom should not stop at the border; the Declaration of Independence states that “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.” It does not limit these unalienable rights to just those lucky enough to be born in the United States.

In dealing with any political issue, I ask myself the question, “What solution produces the most freedom?” The problem is that government, particularly the California state government, has created an immigration problem with out-of-control welfare and the so-called “war on drugs.” Reducing the potential for terrorism is a completely separate issue that, unfortunately, requires a major change in our foreign policy over a period of decades, something over which I would have little, if any, influence, as Governor of California.

Many people are attracted to the United States because of the potential for work at higher wages, free education for their children, free medical care, and a variety of welfare benefits that cause them to be financially better off in the United States, even if they’re unemployed, than in their own countries. Unfortunately, we cannot support the entire world. California is a particular problem because our welfare benefits are far more generous than nearly all other states; this is why we have 32-36% (depending on source) of the total welfare recipients living in California but only about 12% of the US population, proportionately about three times as many welfare recipients to support than the average state. There needs to be a dramatic cut-back in welfare so that we do not attract every deadbeat in the world to California to live at the expense of our taxpayers. There need to be incentives for people to work and be productive. This was proven beyond any reasonable doubt by the welfare reform passed in 1996 by Congress and signed by President Clinton.

“California’s rising standards of living and outstanding public schools and universities once attracted millions seeking upward economic mobility. But then something went radically wrong as California legislatures and governors built a welfare state on high tax rates, liberal entitlement benefits, and excessive regulation. The results, though predictable, are nonetheless striking. From the mid-1980s to 2005, California’s population grew by 10 million, while Medicaid recipients soared by seven million; tax filers paying income taxes rose by just 150,000; and the prison population swelled by 115,000.”  California’s Greek Tragedy

Likewise, the war on drugs adds to the immigration problem by creating opportunities for organized crime, much like alcohol prohibition. People who live in border states are understandably concerned with crime along the border. If we end the war on drugs (California would be a terrific start) and allow people to put into their bodies whatever substances they wish, whether for medicinal or recreational purposes, then the profits for organized crime would disappear. Instead, we’d have law-abiding, tax-paying businesses, much like the tobacco and alcohol companies, manufacturing and distributing drugs. There would be greater quality control and our borders would no longer be a crime-ridden environment. Our city streets would be safer because gangs and drug dealers would no longer be fighting over sales turf. No more SWAT teams would conduct raids into citizens homes at 5:00 am, endangering, wounding and sometimes even killing innocent children and otherwise peaceable people. Over 28,000 people were killed in drug wars in Mexico in the last four years, many of them wives, children, and relatives of law enforcement agents and of rival drug lords. Most of this violence would stop.

People are concerned about jobs and often use immigrants as scapegoats for unemployment. Yet a September 2009 study by two professors from California State University Sacramento, Cost of State Regulations California Small Business (and small businesses are the engine that creates jobs) shows that such regulations cost the State 3.8 million jobs. It would take only a moderate roll-back of these regulations to virtually eliminate unemployment (estimated at 2.2 million) in California. A major roll-back and we would be looking for people to come to California to work. Reducing and rationalizing local regulations on small businesses would go even further and tax reform would complete the picture.

Philosophically, I believe in open borders; people should be able to come and go as they please, as long as they do not trespass or commit crimes. In a purely libertarian world, people could come to this country only if they were invited by a resident and their conduct guaranteed by that resident. However, until we eliminate welfare and end the war on drugs (and eliminate the potential for terrorism), we need to control our borders and keep our citizens and residents safe.

Most Americans think that freedom means the government gets to tell us who can come here and live with us. Even many Americans who believe strongly in free trade in goods can’t quite bring themselves to embrace the free movement of people. De-socialize society and the immigration “problem” resolves itself into a great blessing for us all. Foreigners will come — the best and hardiest of them — because of the abundance of opportunity a free society represents.” — Lawrence W. Reed, The Freeman [October 1994]


It is morally wrong for government to take money from one group of individuals (taxpayers) and give it to others (welfare recipients). Welfare is not charity: charity is a virtue; welfare is premised upon theft! Likewise, we should neither subsidize nor penalize immigrants. If we were to eliminate most welfare programs, then many taxpaying citizens would be less concerned with immigration. As Thomas Jefferson observed, “Dependence begets subservience and venality, suffocates the germ of virtue, and prepares fit tools for the designs of ambition.”

If peaceable people want to come to the United States and to California to work and take care of their families, they should be able to do so, without fear of reprisals.
However, they should become Americans and assimilate. As Theodore Roosevelt said in 1907:

“In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else, for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the persons becoming in every facet an American, and nothing but an American... There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn’t an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag... We have room for but one language here, and that is the English language... and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.”

Immigrants who commit crimes against persons or property should be imprisoned and deported after their terms in prison (for serious offenses) or merely deported (for non-serious offenses). In that regard, and due to the issue of terrorism, the United States government needs to monitor and control its borders.

I believe in free trade in labor just as I believe in free trade in goods. Most of our citizens are descendants of immigrants and we should accept those from other countries, provided we can do so without subjecting ourselves to terrorist attacks. However, most of the actions and infringements on our freedom taken by the federal government are not only useless in thwarting terrorist attacks but seem more designed to control the citizens and condition them to being manipulated by the government.

10. Gun Rights: I am a strong supporter of the 2nd and 9th amendments (and the other amendments that comprise the Bill of Rights) and believe in both the right to keep and bear arms, with little or no restrictions, and the right to self-defense under the 9th amendment. Clearly included in the right to self-defense is the right to wear bullet-proof vests or body armor when one chooses to do so (there are unconstitutional California laws against body armor for civilians). There are no “special” people in the United States. If the President or the police can wear body armor, so can anyone else.

“The right of a citizen to bear arms, in lawful defense of himself or the State, is absolute. He does not derive it from the State government. It is one of the “high powers” delegated directly to the citizen, and is excepted out of the general powers of government. A law cannot be passed to infringe upon or impair it, because it is above the law, and independent of the lawmaking power.” — Cockrum v. State [1859]

I plan to appoint a voluntary commission to help me pardon those convicted of victimless crimes, like gambling and marijuana possession (and there are many thousands), and gun possession not connected with a violent crime. I would also issue an executive order to all state and local law enforcement agents that the second amendment applies in California, just like it does in the other 49 states and D.C., and that they should (1) not arrest or prosecute anyone for exercising his or her right to bear arms; (2) that anyone arrested or prosecuted for such will be pardoned by me; and (3) that the laws identifying some arms as assault weapons are unlawful infringements on the unalienable right to keep and bear arms that is guaranteed, not granted, by the US Constitution (I am open to strengthening such an order and would seek legal and other assistance before issuing such an order).

Finally, I would prosecute any law enforcement agents who violate the rights of California citizens, including, but not limited to, unconstitutional gun control laws, asset forfeiture, and excessive force used in drug busts. I would do everything in my power to disband all SWAT teams; they have become a menace. We live in a police state where federal, state, and local law enforcement agents are a greater threat to our life, liberty, and property than common criminals. Ending the war on drugs would eliminate a lot of crime, and we could cut our various police forces and government attorneys offices in half or better. I would rather have 15-20% of the citizens on the street armed and disarm the police.

What is a Libertarian?

Libertarians-versus-Left-Right

View/Download a large version of the above chart

“I have little interest in streamlining government or in making it more efficient, for I mean to reduce its size. I do not undertake to promote welfare, for I propose to extend freedom. My aim is not to pass laws, but to repeal them. It is not to inaugurate new programs, but to cancel old ones that do violence to the Constitution or that have failed their purpose, or that impose on the people an unwarranted financial burden. I will not attempt to discover whether legislation is ‘needed’ before I have first determined whether it is constitutionally permissible. And if I should later be attacked for neglecting my constituents’ interests, I shall reply that I was informed that their main interest is liberty and that in that cause I am doing the very best I can.” –Barry Goldwater

“Every new regulation concerning commerce or revenue; or in any manner affecting the value of the different species of property, presents a new harvest to those who watch the change and can trace its consequences; a harvest reared not by themselves but by the toils and cares of the great body of their fellow citizens. This is a state of things in which it may be said with some truth that laws are made for the few not for the many.” — Federalist 62

“You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that my dear friend, is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it.” — Adrian Rogers

“Repeal that [welfare] law, and you will soon see a change in their manners. St. Monday and St. Tuesday, will soon cease to be holidays. Six days shalt thou labor, though one of the old commandments long treated as out of date, will again be looked upon as a respectable pre­cept; industry will increase, and with it plenty among the lower people; their circumstances will mend, and more will be done for their happiness by inuring them to provide for them­selves, than could be done by dividing all your estates among them.” — Benjamin Franklin, letter to Collinson, May 9, 1753

Oath of Office for the Governor of California: “I, Dale Ogden, do solemnly swear that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States and the Constitution of the State of California against all enemies, foreign and domestic, that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the Constitution of the United States and the Constitution of the State of California, that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion, and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties [of the office] which I am about to enter.” [edited for poor grammar in the law] “God bless the United States of America and God help the State of California. We need it.” [added]

In 1916, a minister and outspoken advocate for liberty, William J. H. Boetcker, published a pamphlet entitled The Ten Cannots, which fittingly contrasts the competing political and economic factions today:

1.    You cannot bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift.

2.    You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong.

3.    You cannot help the poor man by destroying the rich.

4.    You cannot further the brotherhood of man by inciting class hatred.

5.    You cannot build character and courage by taking away man’s initiative and independence.

6.    You cannot help small men by tearing down big men.

7.    You cannot lift the wage earner by pulling down the wage payer.

8.    You cannot keep out of trouble by spending more than your income.

9.    You cannot establish security on borrowed money.

10.                You cannot help men permanently by doing for them what they will not do for themselves.

Dogbert-4-President

Dogbert has become a regular politician, like NutMeg and Moonbeam

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10/18/2010: Check out the latest in Richard Rider’s California Breaking Bad

Cost Of State Regulations On California Small Businesses Study
September, 2009, by

Sanjay B. Varshney, Ph.D., CFA

Professor of Finance and Dean - College of Business Administration

California State University, Sacramento

Dennis H. Tootelian, Ph.D.

Professor of Marketing – College of Business Administration

California State University, Sacramento

…CONCLUSIONS

This study measures and reports the cost of regulation to small business in the State of California. It employs an original and unique approach using a general equilibrium framework to identify and measure the cost of regulation as measured by the loss of economic output to the State’s gross product, after controlling for variables known to influence output. It also measures second order costs resulting from regulatory activity by studying the total impact – direct, indirect, and induced. The study finds that the total cost of regulation to the State of California is $492.994 billion which is almost five times the State’s general fund budget, and almost a third of the State’s gross product. The total cost of regulation results in an employment loss of 3.8 million jobs which is a tenth of the State’s population. Since small business constitute 99.2% of all employer businesses in California, and all of non-employer business, the regulatory cost is borne almost completely by small business. The general equilibrium framework yields the following results:

• The total loss of gross state output for California each year due to direct, indirect, and induced impact of the regulatory cost is $492.994 billion.

• In terms of employment this total output loss is equivalent to the loss of 3.8 million jobs for the state each year. A loss of 3.8 million jobs represents 10% of the total population of California. In terms of labor income, the total loss to the state from the regulatory cost is $210.471 billion. Finally the indirect business taxes that would have been generated due to the output lost arising from the regulatory cost is $16.024 billion.

• The total regulatory cost of $492.994 billion is four to four and a half times the total budget for the state of California, and almost five to six times the general fund alone. Further, given the total gross state output of $1.6 trillion for California in 2007, the lost output from regulatory costs is almost a third of the gross state output.

• The indirect business taxes lost could have helped fund many of the state’s departmental budgets. As an example, the indirect business taxes lost are 60 times the budget of the Office of Emergency Services, and would have paid for almost half the budget of the Department of Education.

• The total cost of regulation was $134,122.48 per small business in California in 2007, labor income not created or lost was $57,260.15 per small business, indirect business taxes not generated or lost were $4,359.55 per small business, and finally roughly one job lost per small business.

• The total regulatory cost of $492.994 billion translates into a total cost per household of $38,446.76 per household, or $13,052.05 per resident. The total cost per household comes close to the median household income for California.

This study provides the most comprehensive and complete analysis of the total regulatory burden in California. The study and findings have implications for policymakers and those in charge of the regulatory environment. The results also suggest that future research should attempt to understand how to minimize the intended and unintended costs of regulation. Since small businesses are the lifeblood of California’s economy constituting 99.2% of all employer businesses, efforts to make the regulatory environment more attractive will make California a more attractive state for doing business. This in turn will improve the state’s output, employment, labor income, indirect business taxes, economic climate, quality of life, living standards, and growth prospects…

[Download the entire article (PDF)]

The Trouble with Public Sector Unions by Daniel Disalvo
(from the Fall 2010 Issue of National Affairs)

When Chris Christie became New Jersey's governor in January, he wasted no time in identifying the chief perpetrators of his state's fiscal catastrophe. Facing a nearly $11 billion budget gap — as well as voters fed up with the sky-high taxes imposed on them to finance the state government's profligacy — Christie moved swiftly to take on the unions representing New Jersey's roughly 400,000 public employees.

On his first day in office, the governor signed an executive order preventing state-workers' unions from making political contributions — subjecting them to the same limits that had long applied to corporations. More recently, he has waged a protracted battle against state teachers' unions, which are seeking pay increases and free lifetime health care for their members. Recognizing the burden that such benefits would place on New Jersey's long-term finances, Christie has sought instead to impose a one-year wage freeze, to change pension rules to limit future benefits, and to require that teachers contribute a tiny fraction of their salaries to cover the costs of their health insurance — measures that, for private-sector workers, would be mostly uncontroversial.

The firestorm that these proposals have sparked demonstrates the political clout of state-workers' unions. Christie's executive order met with vicious condemnation from union leaders and the politicians aligned with them; his fight with the public-school teachers prompted the New Jersey Education Association to spend $6 million (drawn from members' dues) on anti-Christie attack ads over a two-month period. Clearly, the lesson for reform-minded politicians has been: Confront public-sector unions at your peril.

Yet confront them policymakers must. As Christie said about the duel with the NJEA, "If we don't win this fight, there's no other fight left." Melodramatic as this may sound, for many states, it is simply reality. The cost of public-sector pay and benefits (which in many cases far exceed what comparable workers earn in the private sector), combined with hundreds of billions of dollars in unfunded pension liabilities for retired government workers, are weighing down state and city budgets. And staggering as these burdens seem now, they are actually poised to grow exponentially in the years ahead. If policymakers fail to rein in this growth, a fiscal crack-up will be the inevitable result.

New Jersey has drawn national attention as a case study, but the same scenario is playing out in state capitals from coast to coast. New York, Michigan, California, Washington, and many other states also find themselves heavily indebted, with public-sector unions at the root of their problems. In exchange, taxpayers in these states are rewarded with larger and more expensive, yet less effective, government, and with elected officials who are afraid to cross the politically powerful unions. As the Wall Street Journal put it recently, public-sector unions "may be the single biggest problem...for the U.S. economy and small-d democratic governance." They may also be the biggest challenge facing state and local officials — a challenge that, unless economic conditions dramatically improve, will dominate the politics of the decade to come...

In 1943, a New York Supreme Court judge held:

"To tolerate or recognize any combination of civil service employees of the government as a labor organization or union is not only incompatible with the spirit of democracy, but inconsistent with every principle upon which our government is founded. Nothing is more dangerous to public welfare than to admit that hired servants of the State can dictate to the government the hours, the wages and conditions under which they will carry on essential services vital to the welfare, safety, and security of the citizen. To admit as true that government employees have power to halt or check the functions of government unless their demands are satisfied, is to transfer to them all legislative, executive and judicial power. Nothing would be more ridiculous."

...When it comes to advancing their interests, public-sector unions have significant advantages over traditional unions. For one thing, using the political process, they can exert far greater influence over their members' employers — that is, government — than private-sector unions can. Through their extensive political activity, these government-workers' unions help elect the very politicians who will act as "management" in their contract negotiations — in effect handpicking those who will sit across the bargaining table from them, in a way that workers in a private corporation (like, say, American Airlines or the Washington Post Company) cannot. Such power led Victor Gotbaum, the leader of District Council 37 of the AFSCME in New York City, to brag in 1975: "We have the ability, in a sense, to elect our own boss."

Public-sector unions thus distort the labor market, weaken public finances, and diminish the responsiveness of government and the quality of public services. Many of the concerns that initially led policymakers to oppose collective bargaining by government employees have, over the years, been vindicated…

[Read the entire article and become more depressed]

8/21/2010: Check out the latest in Richard Rider’s California Breaking Bad

More about Anthropogenic Global Warming

Even if one believes there has been Global Warming, consider the common sense that comes from Vaclav Klaus, who introduces Four Questions for the thinking person (not to be confused with Barack Obama, Al Gore or George W. Bush). He states: “Let us focus on science and cost-benefit rather than silly emotional appeal. I ask myself several questions. Let’s put them in the proper sequence:

“Is global warming a reality?

“If it is a reality, is it man-made?

“If it is a reality, is it a problem? Will the people in the world, and now I have to say ‘globally’ be better-off or worse-off due to small increases of global temperature?

“If it is a reality, and if it is a problem, can men prevent it or stop it? Can any reasonable cost-benefit analysis justify anything within the range of current proposals to be done just now?

“Surprisingly, we can say yes, with some degree of probability, only to the first question. To the remaining three, my answer is no. And I am not alone in saying that. We are, however, still more or less the silent or silenced majority.”

Czech President Calls Man-Made Global Warming a Myth, Questions Al Gore’s Sanity

Environmentalists Pick Up Where Communists Left Off
By Charles Krauthammer

8/16/2010: about the War on Drugs from DownsizeDC.org

The Mexican government reports that its War on Drugs has killed 28,000 people over the past four years. This ongoing tragedy is undermining Mexico’s stability, which is bad news for the United States.

But that’s not the only way drug prohibition is hurting us. I urge you to watch this interview with Neill Franklin, the Executive Director of Law Enforcement Against Prohibition (under 9 minutes) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzOHQdKRANA

The video reveals that the Mexican drug cartels have expanded into 230 U.S. cities. Unsurprisingly, the overwhelming majority of police 911 calls are related to this illegal drug trade. And yet, as our police go from one drug-related 911 call to the next, most violent crimes go unsolved, including . . .

* 60% of rapes,

* 73% of robberies,

* 88% of auto thefts, and

* 37% of murders

Whereas, in 1963, before the War on Drugs, only 9% of murders went unsolved!

Repealing drug prohibition would put an end to narcotics units and place more cops on the street to “do the work that is supposed to be done.”

But unsolved crime is not the only danger caused by the Drug War. Our children are particularly at risk...

* Criminals don’t ask for ID’s to verify the age of their customers.

* This means that powerful drugs are more available to kids than cigarettes and alcohol.

* Criminals don’t care about quality control, so the black market substances that lure our kids are more dangerous than they would be if prohibition didn’t exist

* And urban, African-American children are at special risk. They are heavily recruited to the drug trade because juvenile offenders get lesser sentences.

Whereas in Portugal, which legalized personal drug possession ten years ago...

* There was a double-digit drop in drug use by school-age children

* As well as a double-digit drop in AIDS cases

* The stigma has been removed for people seeking treatment

* And there is MORE MONEY for treatment

Even so, President Obama still wants to increase funding for the War on Drugs!

But the facts are clear. Drug prohibition doesn’t work. Repeal the federal drug laws. Our communities will be safer and our children will be better off.

8/2/2010: Fun with Numbers: Has eMeg Got Her $$’s Worth?

Three months before the November election, there appear to be three major beneficiaries of Meg Whitman’s over-the-top spending in her campaign for governor. Unfortunately for the Republican nominee, none of them is her.

With new campaign finance statements scheduled to be filed this week, eMeg is expected to report somewhere north of $100 million in boodle disbursed to date, as the big winners in her extravagant spree are:

1-The vast legions of consultants, strategists, pollsters, flacks, purse carriers and other geniuses who have raked in tens of millions in fees, commissions, salaries and investments, in the greatest political bonanza since Bill Clinton auctioned off one-night stands in the Lincoln Bedroom..

2-The TV stations of California, which have been on the receiving end of Whitman’s own special economic stimulus program for nearly a year now. How’s this for a stat: Dan Morain noted in his Sunday SacBee column that she’s run 25,727 broadcast and cable ads since the primary alone. That’s not to mention Google and other online ad venues, where it’s all but impossible to miss that ubiquitous picture of Young Meg looking oddly forlorn for someone with that much loot in her future.

3-Carlos Alvarez and Dale Ogden, the Peace and Freedom and Libertarian candidates for governor, respectively, who each soared into the low single digits in the most recent PPIC poll, as Whitman drooped to her lowest level of support among likely voters in 2010.

In an interview the other day, her Democratic rival Jerry Brown said that eMeg has “wasted most of her money on unwise and ‘lavish’ spending,” according to our old friend Jim Boren at the Fresno Bee.

That’s easy for Krusty to say, even though his own poll numbers haven’t exactly taken flight; given that he’s spent a total of about 12 cents, it’s hard to argue with his point, if you overlay Whitman’s spending with some of her trend lines in the PPIC survey.

1-Among likely voters back in January, eMeg was backed by 36%, to Brown’s 41%; after inundating the airwaves for six months with the equivalent of the Duchy of Grand Fenwick’s GDP, the bottom line is that she lost two points of support, and now trails Brown 34-37%.

2-Among independent voters, Whitman’s investment has netted little. In January, she trailed Brown among the crucial group of decline-to-state voters, who hold the balance of power in a statewide race, 28-36%; two months later, she’d surged, largely on the strength of a 14-point swing among independents, who then favored her over Brown, 43-37%. But after dominating the airwaves in the months since, she again trails among independents, 28-30%, according to the PPIC survey released last week.

3-Among female voters, who should represent a big opportunity for Whitman, the first Republican woman ever nominated for governor, there’s a stubborn gender gap. In January, she trailed Brown, 30-44%, among women; today, after going to the purse for $2 million a week, week after week, she’s behind 28-40%.

By far, Whitman’s strongest showing came in PPIC’s poll in March – before she unleashed the bulk of her advertising in her successful primary race against Steve Poizner. At that point, she led Brown 44-39% overall and, as noted above, ran ahead among independents; among women, she was within the margin of error.

But after that, all that bashing Poizner on the airwaves through the primary (while getting bashed by him to the tune of about $20 million) yielded was a 10-point shift in Brown’s favor; she trailed the AG shortly before the June 8 election by 37-42%. Now, after six weeks of incessant attacks against Brown, her level of support has eroded by another three points, though she’s also knocked him down by five.

As a practical matter, the Whitman campaign has yet to give voters a strong, positive reason to be for her, or even told them much about her, except a) she used to be the CEO of eBay; b) she’s not Steve Poizner or Jerry Brown; c) she thinks jobs and schools are really important; d) she believes illegal immigration is a terrible thing, except when she doesn’t; e) did we mention she used to be the CEO of eBay? [emphasis added]

The Field Poll shows a trend line in the Whitman-Brown head-to-head matchup that’s more favorable to eMeg than the PPIC survey, but it nevertheless also suggests that the more people hear about her, the less they like her.

Back in January – when her image was still a relatively clean slate for voters – less than half of those surveyed had an opinion of her, but among those who did, it was positive 25-20%. Today, more than 80 percent have an opinion about her, but it’s negative – 42% unfavorable and 40% favorable.

Calbuzzards ain’t exactly masters of the universe when it comes to matters of high finance, but for such a smart businesswoman, that $100 million out the door seems to us, all in all, like kind of a mediocre investment.

Of course, the funds spent by Brown’s labor pals — especially California Working Families — may not have done much to boost Krusty’s favorables, but they seem to have helped prevent Meg from developing much of a favorable image among swing voters, either.

All this helps explain why Team Meg recently launched a new charm offensive, trying to cozy up to Latinos (a strategy undercut by widespread reporting about her prevarication on the issue, not to mention her own conflicting statements to news outlets) and with a new, positive 60-second radio ad (which once again focuses almost exclusively on her eBay experience).

Obviously, with three months to go, and uncounted millions to spend, there’s plenty of time and resources for Team eMeg to make some adjustments that offer a more effective criteria for her candidacy than they have to date.

But the closer it gets to Labor Day, when Brown intends to start putting his own ads on the air, the more difficult it becomes for her to exploit her greatest asset, the unprecedented edge she enjoys in money and, by likely extension, in campaign mechanics and organization as well.

The big piece that’s still missing from eMeg’s big-spending campaign is a compelling positive message, along with the answers to two, lingering key questions: Why, exactly, does she want to be elected governor so badly that she’s willing to spend $100 million+ to do it? And why, exactly, is that a good deal for voters?

Inquiring minds want to know.

Bob Mulholland: “Whitman is a scared billionaire candidate who has no business sense. Most of her consultants see her no different than a New York cab driver picking up a first time tourist at the Kennedy Airport with cash in their hands. They’re taking her to the cleaners.”

8/2/2010: Jerry Brown’s Pension Punt
The California Democrat won’t consider 401(k)s for state employees.

The race for California Governor ought to come down to which candidate has a better chance to rein in the special-interest asylum that is the state legislature. Republican Meg Whitman is a conservative former eBay CEO but a political rookie, while former Democratic Governor Jerry Brown is a liberal but might be quirky enough to do a Nixon goes to Sacramento. Judging by his recent pension reform plan, however, Mr. Brown still has some relearning to do.

This year, the Golden State is running a $19 billion deficit, at least $6.2 billion of which is owed for retiree pension and benefit payments. That number is expected to nearly triple in the next decade as the pension tsunami gains speed. All told, California’s unfunded pension liability is scored at more than $120 billion, with some estimates rising to $500 billion.

For that, Californians can thank the state’s bloated benefits, low employee and employer contributions to the pension plans, and the inflated investment-return assumptions used to hide pension costs. As investment returns have turned south, the state has had to make up for shortfalls by cutting back on higher education, parks and social services.

Which brings us to Mr. Brown’s proposed reforms. On the plus side, the plan would reduce pension “spiking,” which happens when employees rack up overtime and bonuses to inflate their final year’s compensation upon which retirement benefits are based. Mr. Brown would also increase employee contributions, raise the retirement age to 60 from 55 for new hires, and improve accountability, standards and transparency of pension boards.

This is fine as far as it goes, but many of his reforms have already been negotiated by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. The Governor’s fixes would reduce the state’s pension bill by less than $1 billion this year, leaving taxpayers on the hook for more than $5 billion. It’s unlikely Mr. Brown’s reforms would save much more.

A larger problem is Mr. Brown’s refusal to consider defined contribution plans. A 401(k)-style plan for new hires is a cornerstone of Ms. Whitman’s reform plan and should be part of any serious proposal to rein in pension costs. Two thirds of Californians supported the idea in a poll earlier this year, no doubt because most of them have similar plans from their private employers. But it doesn’t poll well with public unions because employees, not state taxpayers, would have to bear the risk of their pension investments. Defined contribution plans give the state budget certainty and control over pension costs, but they also make pensions subject to the overall health of the economy.

Unions prefer defined benefit plans because they can extract benefit promises from lawmakers in exchange for political support. So while lawmakers and unions may agree to scale back benefits now, once (or if) California’s economy manages to recover, there’s nothing to stop lawmakers from giving away the store again.

So far, only Alaska, Michigan and the District of Columbia have braved public union opposition to enact defined contribution plans. But a handful of other states, including Oregon and Washington, have experimented with hybrid plans that combine a modest defined-benefit plan (often invested at a risk-free rate) and a 401(k)-style plan.

The hybrids do less to contain state costs, but they represent the kind of compromise that a fiscally serious Democrat could plausibly sign on to. Mr. Brown seems to have flunked his first test of political independence from the Sacramento mob.

7/24/2010: We Have Seen the Future by Thomas G. Donlan
Businesses Flee the Formerly Golden State

For decades, Californians took pride in saying, “Wherever the country is going, California will get there first.” Freeways, free love, state-supported higher education, space technology and computers created a utopia of runaway growth. Americans moved to California by the millions for new jobs and new lifestyles.

More recently, Californians have been disillusioned and dispossessed. High taxes were necessary to pay for the goodies dispensed by government; outraged citizens tried to keep the goodies and let the state borrow to pay for them. Borrowing, however, turned out to be a tax deferred, not denied.

The state government has taken the people’s anger out on business. Running a business in California requires negotiating a thicket of regulation, fees, workers’ compensation costs and lengthy processing of permits. As they used to say in other such jurisdictions, “Everything that is not compulsory is forbidden, and everything that is not forbidden is compulsory.”

California boasts a pro-consumer, anti--producer, legal system The prize for business success in California is the privilege of paying high taxes—or the exercise of one remaining commercial freedom, the freedom to leave the state.

Joseph Vranich, a consultant in Irvine, keeps tabs on business emigration because he makes a good living helping companies depart. He calls himself a “business relocation coach,” and business is booming. Using public information, he tallied 85 corporate departures, partial or complete, between Jan. 1 and July 20, 2010. That’s twice as many as he counted in all of 2009, and nearly three times as many as in the three years before that. He keeps the tally on a blog, http://thebusinessrelocationcoach.blogspot.com/

Vranich reports: “Companies of all types are reducing their California footprint. The list includes well-known California-based firms like Google, Hilton, Genentech, Yelp, Apple, Facebook, and DirectTV. Meanwhile, lesser-known family-owned companies are leaving the state completely, but they prefer to stay out of the limelight, and their moves are difficult to track.” He adds: “The exodus of known capital and jobs is the tip of the iceberg. The losses are deeper than are recorded here. California is in an economic state of emergency that will only get worse because the state government shows no sign of being less hostile to business, and because more companies will be leaving.”

Texas is the state benefiting the most from the California exodus, Vranich says. The next four are Colorado, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina.

At the head of Vranich’s list is the shutdown of Toyota’s plant in Fremont, outside Oakland. About 4,700 workers were laid off there, and Toyota moved some of their work to Texas and Ontario. Toyota has also restarted construction of a new plant in Mississippi that will produce the same model car that was built in Fremont.

One consolation: California is not leading the U.S. in the job-destruction follies. The industrial Northeast went down this path, starting in the 1920s. New York City lost the bulk of its corporate headquarters in the 1960s. The Midwest, formerly America’s Heartland, became the Rust Belt in the 1980s.

California, however, has one new industry abuilding. Oakland aspires to become “the Silicon Valley of cannabis.” The city council voted last week to license—and tax—large-scale indoor marijuana farms. And a statewide referendum this fall will offer voters the chance to approve legal consumption of marijuana—with a tax attached.

If California does lead the nation to legal dopery, the next step is obvious. California will tax and regulate the new industry right out of the state.

[Read the rest of the essay]

7/13/2010: California taxes vs. other states
by Richard Rider, San Diego Tax Fighters

I spend a lot of time comparing California’s tax and regulatory climate with other states. The reason is simple ---- people are reluctant to leave a country (especially the U.S.), but they will leave a state. And so will businesses.

The news is not good. Consider California has the:

-- Third-worst state income tax in the nation.

-- Highest state sales tax rate in the nation.

-- Highest corporate income tax rate west of the Mississippi (our economic competitors) except for Alaska

-- Fourth-highest capital gains tax.

-- Highest total gasoline and diesel taxes in the nation.

-- One of the highest state vehicle license car taxes ---- raised 77 percent higher since 2008.

In addition, California is ranked 27th-worst in per capita property taxes (including commercial) ---- the only area where we are not in the worst 10 states. But California’s property taxes per home were the 10th-highest in the nation in 2008.

California’s 2010 “Tax Freedom Day” (the day the average taxpayer stops working for government and starts working for oneself) is the seventh-worst date in the nation ---- up from 28th worst in 1994, but down from fourth-worst last year. California “improved” only because of our state’s soaring unemployment rate (third-highest in the nation). Unemployment ---- the new tax dodge!

Moreover, in 2009, California was responsible for about 42 percent of all the state tax increases in the nation; its 2010 Business Tax Climate ranks 48th in the nation; it now has the lowest bond ratings of any state, edging out Louisiana; and America’s top 600 CEOs rank California “the worst place in which to do business” for the fifth straight year.

Here’s the bottom line result: Look at California’s net domestic migration (migration between states). From April 2000 through June 2008, California has lost a net 1.4 million people. The departures slowed in 2008 only because people couldn’t sell their homes.

These are not welfare kings and queens departing. They are the young, the educated, the productive, the ambitious, the wealthy (such as Tiger Woods) and retirees seeking more bang for the buck.

The irony is that a disproportionate number of these seniors are retired state and local government employees fleeing the state that provides them with their opulent pensions ---- in order to avoid the high taxes that these same employees pushed so hard through their unions.

Incredibly, the politicians’ solution is ---- you guessed it ---- higher taxes! This madness must end now. We pay too much already.

* * *

For a more complete, up-to-date factsheet comparing California with the other states (including the online sources), go to my blog www.RiderBlog.NotLong.com.

RICHARD RIDER is chairman of San Diego Tax Fighters, a grass-roots, pro-taxpayer group.

7/2/2010: Six months to go until the largest tax increase (actually multiple increases) in history: In just six months, the largest tax hikes in the history of America will take effect. They will hit families and small businesses in three great waves on January 1, 2011:

First Wave: Expiration of 2001 and 2003 Tax Relief

Personal income tax rates will rise

Higher taxes on marriage and family

return of the Death Tax

Higher tax rates on savers and investors.

Second Wave: Obamacare: There are over twenty new or higher taxes in Obamacare. Several will first go into effect on January 1, 2011. They include:

Medicine Cabinet Tax

Special Needs Kids Tax

HSA Withdrawal Tax Hike

Third Wave: The Alternative Minimum Tax and Employer Tax Hikes

The AMT will ensnare over 28 million families, up from 4 million last year.

Small business expensing will be slashed and 50% expensing will disappear

Taxes will be raised on all types of businesses

Tax Benefits for Education and Teaching Reduced.

Charitable Contributions from IRAs no longer allowed

[Read more]

6/27/2010: The union-only protection racket by Jeff Jacoby

[Not only is it a protection racket, but a large portion of the union dues are recycled directly back to Democrats]

THIS IS THE KIND OF THING, Charlie Baker was saying one day last week, that “makes people crazy about state government.”

The Republican gubernatorial candidate was standing near the site of the University of Massachusetts-Boston’s forthcoming expansion -- a 10-year master plan for at least $750 million in new construction and renovation projects. On June 14, the University of Massachusetts Building Authority had voted to proceed under a Project Labor Agreement (PLA), meaning that only workers who pay dues to a union will be hired for one of the largest building projects now in the offing. Since roughly 80 percent of the construction workforce in Massachusetts is open-shop (non-union), the PLA amounts to naked political favoritism for organized labor -- and a raw deal for everyone else. Baker condemns PLAs as unjust, and pledges to ban them in state contracts if elected.

Governor Deval Patrick, on the other hand, openly touts his success in steering lucrative construction contracts to the politically-wired sliver of trade workers who choose to belong to a union. “Take our biggest construction project, the $300 million undertaking at Worcester State Hospital,” he told the Building Trades Conference in Plymouth in March. “96 percent of the construction spending is being carried out by union workers.”

Something is plainly wrong when elected officials boast of excluding the vast majority of contractors and their employees from the chance to work on public projects. If the situation were reversed -- if union members were the ones being blackballed by the administration -- voters would be outraged. Is it any less outrageous when bids are rigged in favor of unions?

There is no economic rationale for these union-only deals. They are discriminatory and anti-competitive, and thus drive up costs significantly. When Suffolk University’s Beacon Hill Institute analyzed the costs of building126 Boston-area schools, it found that PLAs inflated the winning bids for construction projects by almost 14 percent, and added an extra 12 percent to the actual construction costs. When it comes to public construction, PLAs all but guarantee that taxpayers will be overcharged. As The Wall Street Journal observed wryly in April: “Boston’s Big Dig, Seattle’s Safeco Field, Los Angeles’s Eastside Reservoir project, the San Francisco airport, Detroit’s Comerica Park -- all were built under PLAs marked by embarrassing cost overruns.”

Baker describes the Patrick administration’s decision to require a PLA for the UMass-Boston overhaul as “arrogant.” But that doesn’t really go far enough.

The primary justification for PLAs is that they preserve “labor peace.” Union leaders promise not to strike or otherwise disrupt a construction project in exchange for the government’s guarantee that all contractors hired to do the work will operate as union shops and that all workers will pay union dues. PLAs, in other words, amount to a protection racket. To put it in Hollywood terms, unions tell government officials: “Nice construction project ya got here. Be a shame if somethin’ was to . . . happen to it.”

Not surprisingly, taxpayers resent such extortion. Earlier this month, voters in the southern California municipalities of Oceanside and Chula Vista handily enacted ballot initiatives prohibiting PLAs on city-funded construction. A similar measure goes on the ballot in San Diego in November.

According to a statewide Suffolk University-7 News survey taken in March, Massachusetts residents have no use for PLAs either. Asked whether private contractors working on public projects should be compelled to hire exclusively through union hiring halls, 69 percent said No. Opposition to excluding non-union laborers from work that their taxes help fund was expressed by clear majorities of both men (77 percent) and women (61 percent); of Democrats (52 percent), Republicans (88 percent), and independents (76 percent); of whites (69 percent) and minorities (67 percent). The same was true when respondents were sorted by age or geography -- strong majorities were against union-only mandates. Even among union households, 59 percent were opposed.

If support for open competition on public projects is so unambiguous, why doesn’t Patrick join Baker in renouncing deals like the one effectively shutting out open-shop contractors from UMass-Boston? With voters so opposed to PLAs, what does the governor gain -- or think he gains -- from embracing them? It’s that kind of thing that “makes people crazy about state government,” Baker says. That’s a message he should keep hammering home.

(Jeff Jacoby is a columnist for The Boston Globe. His website is www.JeffJacoby.com).


it’s time to get our finances in order or else…

5/11/2010: Fifteen Things to Despise about Government Regulation
Bureaucrats are always behind the curve.
by Richard W. Fulmer and Robert L. Bradley Jr.

5/1/2010: Stop Bashing Immigrants: a great article by Dan Fernandez about immigration in the May-June issue of The Los Angeles Libertarian newsletter.

4/26/2010: Check out Restriction or Legalization? Measuring the Economic Benefits of Immigration Reform at the Cato Institute

By the latest estimates, 8.3 million workers in the United States are illegal immigrants. Proposed policy responses range from more restrictive border and workplace enforcement to legalization of workers who are already here and the admission of new workers through a temporary visa program. Policy choices made by Congress and the president could have a major economic impact on the welfare of U.S. households. This study uses the U.S. Applied General Equilibrium model that has been developed for the U.S. International Trade Commission and other U.S. government agencies to estimate the welfare impact of seven different scenarios, which include increased enforcement at the border and in the workplace, and several different legalization options, including a visa program that allows more low-skilled workers to enter the U.S. workforce legally.

For each scenario, the USAGE model weighs the impact on such factors as public revenues and expenditures, the occupational mix and total employment of U.S. workers, the amount of capital owned by U.S. households, and price levels for imports and exports. This study finds that increased enforcement and reduced low-skilled immigration have a significant negative impact on the income of U.S. households. Modest savings in public expenditures would be more than offset by losses in economic output and job opportunities for more skilled American workers. A policy that reduces the number of low-skilled immigrant workers by 28.6 percent compared to projected levels would reduce U.S. household welfare by about 0.5 percent, or $80 billion.

In contrast, legalization of low-skilled immigrant workers would yield significant income gains for American workers and households. Legalization would eliminate smugglers’ fees and other costs faced by illegal immigrants. It would also allow immigrants to have higher productivity and create more openings for Americans in higher skilled occupations. The positive impact for U.S. households of legalization under an optimal visa tax would be 1.27 percent of GDP or $180 billion.

Download the PDF of Trade Policy Analysis no. 40 (687 KB)

4/17/2010: According to this Wall Street journal article by James Freeman, on New Jersey’s Failed Experiment [big government and higher taxes], Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey has started what I plan to do in California. It’s a harsh, unpleasant job and it will require a harsh, unpleasant man to do it. That man (or woman) is not Jerry Brown or Meg Whitman. It’s Dale Ogden. Below is my comment on the article:

Governor Christie has started a year earlier on what appears to be much like my plan to reform the dysfunctional government of the once Great State of California, which has similar problems, only much, much bigger. Perhaps Governor Christie’s experiences in New Jersey will help us catch up more quickly so we have not only the best weather on earth, but everything that New Jersey has except the toxic waste dumps and the disadvantage of its proximity to New York City. California will again be the golden land of opportunity, once we get rid of the “Governator” and replace him with the “Liberator.”

4/7/2010: What Am I? by John Stossel

I used to be a Kennedy-style “liberal.” Then I wised up. Now I’m a libertarian.

But what does that mean?

When I asked people on the street, half had no clue.

We know that conservatives want government to conserve traditional values. They say they’re for limited government, but they’re pro-drug war, pro-immigration restriction and anti-abortion, and they often support “nation-building.”

And so-called liberals? They tend to be anti-gun and pro-choice on abortion. They favor big, powerful government -- they say -- to make life kinder for people.

By contrast, libertarians want government to leave people alone -- in both the economic and personal spheres. Leave us free to pursue our hopes and dreams, as long as we don’t hurt anybody else.

Ironically, that used to be called “liberal,” which has the same root as “liberty.” Several hundred years ago, liberalism was a reaction against the stifling rules imposed by aristocracy and established religion.

I wish I could call myself “liberal” now. But the word has been turned on its head. It now means health police, high taxes, speech codes and so forth.

So I can’t call myself a “liberal.” I’m stuck with “libertarian.” If you have a better word, please let me know.

When I first explained libertarianism to my wife, she said: “That’s cruel! What about the poor and the weak? Let them starve?”

For my FBN show tomorrow, I ask some prominent libertarians that question, including Jeffrey Miron, who teaches economics at Harvard.

“It might in some cases be a little cruel,” Miron said. “But it means you’re not taking from people who’ve worked hard to earn their income (in order) to give it to people who have not worked hard.”

But isn’t it wrong for people to suffer in a rich country?

“The number of people who will suffer is likely to be very small. Private charity ... will provide support for the vast majority who would be poor in the absence of some kind of support. When government does it, it creates an air of entitlement that leads to more demand for redistribution, till everyone becomes a ward of the state.”

Besides, says Wendy McElroy, the founder of ifeminists.com, “government aid doesn’t enrich the poor. Government makes them dependent. And the biggest hindrance to the poor ... right now is the government. Government should get out of the way. It should allow people to open cottage industries without making them jump through hoops and licenses and taxing them to death. It should open up public lands and do a 20th-century equivalent of 40 acres and a mule. It should get out of the way of people and let them achieve and rise.”

David Boaz, executive vice president of the Cato Institute, took the discussion to a deeper level.

“Instead of asking, ‘What should we do about people who are poor in a rich country?’ The first question is, ‘Why is this a rich country?’ ...

“Five hundred years ago, there weren’t rich countries in the world. There are rich countries now because part of the world is following basically libertarian rules: private property, free markets, individualism.”

Boaz makes an important distinction between equality and absolute living standards.

“The most important way that people get out of poverty is economic growth that free markets allow. The second-most important way -- maybe it’s the first -- is family. There are lots of income transfers within families. Third would be self-help and mutual-aid organizations. This was very big before the rise of the welfare state.”

This is an important but unappreciated point: Before the New Deal, people of modest means banded together to help themselves. These organizations were crowded out when government co-opted their insurance functions, which included inexpensive medical care.

Boaz indicts the welfare state for the untold harm it’s done in the name of the poor.

“What we find is a system that traps people into dependency. ... You should be asking advocates of that system, ‘Why don’t you care about the poor?’”

I agree. It appears that when government sets out to solve a problem, not only does it violate our freedom, it also accomplishes the opposite of what it set out to do.

3/29/2010: The Government Pay Boom
America’s most privileged class are public union workers.

It turns out there really is growing inequality in the world. It’s the premium in pay and benefits that government workers receive over the poor saps who create wealth in the private economy.

In the U.K. last year, that meant the median public worker earned a weekly gross of £538.90 — 14% more than the private worker’s £464.70. In the U.S., where the public-private benefits differential is much wider, the total gulf hits 45%.

And the gap is growing. British public sector wages rose 3.1% between April 2008 and April 2009, against a 1% increase for everyone else, says the U.K.’s Office of National Statistics. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), from 1998 to 2008 American public employee compensation grew by 28.6%, compared with 19.3% for private workers. In the recession year of 2009, with almost no inflation and record budget deficits, more than half the states awarded pay raises to their employees. Even as deficits in state capitals widen and are forcing cuts in services, few politicians are willing to eliminate these pay inequities that enrich the few who wield political power.

Let’s walk through the math. In 2008 almost half of all U.S. state and local government expenditures, or an estimated $1.1 trillion, went toward the pay and benefits of public workers. According to the BLS, in 2009 the average state or local public employee received $39.66 in total compensation per hour versus $27.42 for private workers. This means that for every $1 in pay and benefits a private employee earned, a state or local government worker received $1.45.

The BLS study breaks down where that 45% premium comes from. It turns out that public employees earn salaries that are about one-third higher on average than what is provided to private workers per hour worked. But the real windfall for American government workers is in benefits. Those are 70% higher than what standard private employers offer, as shown in the nearby table. Government health benefits are twice as generous as what workers employed by private employees earn. By the way, nearly this entire benefits gap is accounted for by unionized public employees. Nonunion public employees are paid roughly what private workers receive.

What if government workers earned the average of what private workers earn? States and localities would save $339 billion a year from their more than $2.1 trillion budgets. These savings are larger than the combined estimated deficits for 2010 and 2011 of every state in America.

In a separate survey, the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis compares the compensation of public versus private workers in each of the 50 states. Perhaps not coincidentally, the pay gap is widest in states that have the biggest budget deficits. Of the 40 states that have a budget deficit so far this year, 28 would have a balanced budget were it not for the windfall to government workers. Of the other 12 states, five could cut their deficits in half with public-private parity.

But these current fiscal problems are a picnic compared to the long-term benefit commitments that state and local politicians have made to public retirees. A 2009 study by economists Robert Novy-Marx and Joshua Rauh, published in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, estimated that these government pensions are underfunded by $3.2 trillion. Oregon taxpayers pay an average of $12,845 merely for the health benefits for its 51,000 public employees. Oregon public employees contribute nothing to their health insurance premiums. 100% of those costs are paid for by taxpayers. Illinois’s pension obligations are so costly the state had to issue $3.5 billion of bonds merely to meet its mandatory contribution to the worker retirement program, which faces $85 billion in unfunded liabilities. Near-bankrupt New Jersey would have to pay $7 billion a year if it properly accounted for its pension and health benefits.

California, Nevada New Jersey and Ohio all allow double dipping, which lets government workers retire in their 50s and then work another full-time job while collecting retirement checks. In Ohio, police, firefighters and teachers can retire after 30 years on the job, collect a full benefit each year and go back to work full-time doing the same job. This is called retire and rehire.

As the Columbus Dispatch reported last year: “Across the state, Ohio’s State Teachers Retirement System paid out more than $741 million in pension benefits last school year to 15,857 faculty and staff members who were still working for school systems and building up a second retirement plan.” Some teachers can earn nearly $200,000 a year in pensions and salaries.

The union response is that government workers deserve all this because they are more educated and highly skilled. That may account for some of the pay differential but not the blowout benefits. The unions also neglect one of the greatest perks of government employment: job security. Short of shooting up a Post Office, government workers rarely get fired or laid off.

If government workers were underpaid, we’d expect high attrition rates, as they pursued better private opportunities. The reality is the opposite. Cato Institute economist Chris Edwards has analyzed Department of Labor statistics and found that private American workers are three times more likely to quit their jobs than are government workers.

So if your state is broke, this is a major reason. Eventually, governors, state legislators and city council members are going to have to decide whether protecting the privileged class of government workers is a higher priority than funding such core functions of government as public safety. Something has to give. It’s time to close the biggest pay gap in America.

3/10/2010: from the Future of Freedom Foundation: Exchange, like property, is a natural right. Every citizen who has produced or acquired a product should have the option of applying it immediately to his own use or of transferring it to whoever on the face of the earth agrees to give him in exchange the object of his desires. To deprive him of this option when he has committed no act contrary to public order and good morals, and solely to satisfy the convenience of another citizen, is to legitimize an act of plunder and to violate the law of justice. — Frédéric Bastiat, Property and Law [1848]

3/8/2010: Low-Tax Texas Beats Big-Government California by Michael Barone

“Stop messing with Texas!” That was the message Gov. Rick Perry bellowed on election night as he celebrated his victory over Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Republican primary for governor. In his reference to Texas’ anti-littering slogan, Perry was making a point applicable to national as well as Texas politics and addressed to Democratic politicians as well as Republicans.

His point was that the big government policies of the Obama administration and Democratic congressional leaders are resented and fiercely opposed not just because of their dire fiscal effects but also as an intrusion on voters’ independence and ability to make decisions for themselves.

No one would include Perry on a list of serious presidential candidates, including himself, even in the flush of victory. But in his 10 years as governor, the longest in the state’s history, Texas has been teaching some lessons to which the rest of the nation should pay heed.

They are lessons that are particularly vivid when you contrast Texas, the nation’s second most populous state, with the most populous, California. Both were once Mexican territory, secured for the United States in the 1840s. Both have grown prodigiously over the past half-century. Both have populations that today are about one-third Hispanic.

But they differ vividly in public policy and in their economic progress — or lack of it — over the last decade. California has gone in for big government in a big way. Democrats hold large margins in the legislature largely because affluent voters in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay area favor their liberal positions on cultural issues.

Those Democratic majorities have obediently done the bidding of public employee unions to the point that state government faces huge budget deficits. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s attempt to reduce the power of the Democratic-union combine with referenda was defeated in 2005 when public employee unions poured $100 million — all originally extracted from taxpayers — into effective TV ads.

Californians have responded by leaving the state. From 2000 to 2009, the Census Bureau estimates, there has been a domestic outflow of 1,509,000 people from California — almost as many as the number of immigrants coming in. Population growth has not been above the national average and, for the first time in history, it appears that California will gain no House seats or electoral votes from the reapportionment following the 2010 Census.

Texas is a different story. Texas has low taxes — and no state income taxes — and a much smaller government. Its legislature meets for only 90 days every two years, compared to California’s year-round legislature. Its fiscal condition is sound. Public employee unions are weak or nonexistent.

But Texas seems to be delivering superior services. Its teachers are paid less than California’s. But its test scores — and with a demographically similar school population — are higher. California’s once fabled freeways are crumbling and crowded. Texas has built gleaming new highways in metro Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth.

In the meantime, Texas’ economy has been booming. Unemployment rates have been below the national average for more than a decade, as companies small and large generate new jobs.

And Americans have been voting for Texas with their feet. From 2000 to 2009, some 848,000 people moved from other parts of the United States to Texas, about the same number as moved in from abroad. That inflow has continued in 2008-09, in which 143,000 Americans moved into Texas, more than double the number in any other state, at the same time as 98,000 were moving out of California. Texas is on the way to gain four additional House seats and electoral votes in the 2010 reapportionment.

This was not always so. In the two decades after World War II, California, with its pleasant weather, was the Golden State, a promised land, for most Americans, while Texas seemed a provincial rural backwater. Many saw postwar California’s expansion of universities, freeways and water systems a model for the nation. Few experts praised Texas’ low-tax, low-services government.

Now it is California’s ruinously expensive and increasingly incompetent government that seems dysfunctional, while Texas’ approach has generated more creativity and opportunity. So it’s not surprising that Texas voters preferred Perry over an opponent who has spent 16 years in Washington. What’s surprising is that Democrats in Washington are still trying to impose policies like those that have ravaged California rather than those which have proved so successful in Texas.

3/8/2010: The Woeful State of the States – Editorial Commentary by Thomas G. Donlan

IN CALIFORNIA, THE REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR urges higher taxes and new borrowing in the face of a large gap between spending and revenue. In New York, the Democratic governor urges spending cuts in the face of a large budget gap. Perhaps they should trade places, for both governors are unpopular, and their remedies are unlikely to be enacted.

California and New York are not the only states approaching much worse than their annual fiscal crises. Soon it will be the season of stopped clocks, tax-anticipation notes and scrip from coast to coast.

Governors and legislatures are facing the consequences of years of misplaced optimism. Democrats and Republicans seem equally unable to deal with taxes and spending. For years, the spending party was in charge; revenues took care of themselves until recently.

In 45 states, taxes and fees are bringing in less than they did in the previous fiscal year. In 41 states, revenues are lower than projected a year ago. Most states are describing their fiscal situations as crises, and 24 states made budget cuts greater than 5% of total projected spending to get through the current fiscal year. (A budget cut is not the same as a spending cut — most budget cuts were reductions in planned growth, not reductions in outlays.)

The National Governors’ Association recently reported that the states had faced budget gaps of $108.7 billion in fiscal 2010 — 16% of their total general-fund spending of $664 billion in 2009. They closed $89.8 billion of their gaps, using tax and fee increases of $23.9 billion, and budget cuts of $55.7 billion. For 2011 and 2012, the states already expect budget gaps of $55.4 billion and $61.8 billion.

The End Is Near

Such sums are chump change compared with the federal government’s current $1.6 trillion budget deficit, but states have been the biggest beneficiaries of that deficit spending, to the tune of more than $500 billion. Without their usual federal aid for such expensive programs as Medicaid and the special stimulus spending, most states would be even more troubled than they are.

Last year’s brave talk about “shovel-ready” projects for the federal stimulus package was just hot air, but the 2009 stimulus bill probably did save many jobs in state governments. In 2009, the government sector shed a smaller share of its jobs than any part of the private sector tracked by the Current Employment Survey, run by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The averages are just the beginning of the story. All states have not created equal crises. The Pew Center on the States tallied budget projections as of last July 31. There was gloom almost everywhere, led, of course, by California, which was projecting revenues 49% lower than the spending necessary to continue all services and give expected salary and benefit increases.

Other big budget gaps: Illinois, 47%; Arizona, 41%; Nevada, 37%; New York, 32%; Alaska, 30%; New Jersey, 29%.

North Dakota and Montana were the only states with no budget gap; those with gaps of less than 5% were Arkansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Passing the Buck

As in any service industry, salaries are a big part of the problem in state and local government. Decades of civil-service and union job security have left the states with a high-seniority, highly paid workforce.

The government workers demonstrating in the streets of Athens would be downright jealous of the benefits due their counterparts in Sacramento and Albany and other state capitals.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, average wages and benefits in state and local government are higher than in the private sector — $26.24 an hour in government, versus $19.45 an hour in private employment — even though average cash wages are lower in government than in the private sector.

The difference is in the relatively invisible benefits accrued to government workers. Health benefits cost state and local government an average $4.43 an hour, compared with $2.01 for private employers. State and local governments award their workers an average $3.23 an hour for pensions and savings plans, compared with 94 cents an hour in the private sector.

Government pension funds also tend to allow earlier retirement than the private sector, and more generous calculation of pension benefits. Retirement after 25 years of service is common, and basing benefits on pay including overtime is also the norm.

New York City police and firefighters are allowed to retire after 20 years of service. The benefits are set by the state, and paid for by the city. The city has more of them on retirement than there are on active duty. Almost half the retired police and firefighters are under age 60, and more than a quarter of police retirees are under age 50.

New York City police worked double shifts for the months after Sept. 11, 2001. Their overtime was included in their pension calculations, and about 2,500 police retired in each of the next two years, compared to an average of 1,500 a year before the terrorist attacks. The legislature then provided retention bonuses to reward those who delayed retirement.

Invisible Hands

The disparity between private- and public-sector funds is so serious because a large part of state pension benefits are unfunded and uninsured. Consequently, states, most of which also run their localities’ retirement plans, have played fast and loose with their pension promises.

One of the less-noticed causes of the worldwide financial crisis was a desperate search for yield that was led by pension funds and, in turn, by state and local government pension funds. Many maintained unrealistically high expectations of future investment earnings, rushing into high-yield securities and high-risk investments in hedge funds and private equity and real estate just in time to take a big hit.

As they face bigger shortfalls than ever, some funds have sold low and become cautious; others are doubling down in the hope of making back what they lost. Neither strategy is likely to work well enough to save the taxpayers when pension payments come due.

3/1/2010: Comment posted on the LA Times web site as a response to the article,
Is there a Governor of California here?

The biggest problem facing California is public employee unions: we have Government of public employees, by public employees, and for public employees. We have expensive, tyrannical, and useless bureaucrats and regulators that must be eliminated. We have overpaid, under-worked state employees, the number of which must be reduced dramatically, and whose salaries and (especially) pensions must be brought under control. The fraudulent partnership perpetrated by politicians and public employee unions must end and out-of-control spending must be curtailed. We have three times our “fair share” of welfare recipients.

All of these problems must be addressed and Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman will not. They may tinker at the edges but there will no real reform. Only one person can do this, one who isn’t worried about who likes him, one who isn’t worried about future political office.

Over the next four years, being Governor of California will be a harsh and unpleasant job and will require a harsh and unpleasant man to do it. The answer is Dale Ogden, Libertarian, Candidate for Governor of California.

3/1/2010: “Americans cherish their independence. One interesting aspect of the spontaneous tea party movement is the constant invocation of the Founders and the prominence of the ‘Don’t Tread on Me’ flag... Americans tend to see themselves as independent doers, not dependent victims. They don’t like to be told, especially by those with fancy academic pedigrees, that they are helpless and in need of government aid. That’s why the politically popular American big government programs — Social Security, Medicare, veterans’ benefits, student loans — all make a connection [which has become more and more tenuous over time] between effort and reward. You get a benefit because you’ve [usually, not always] worked for it.

In contrast, Americans have loathed and rejected big government programs with no nexus between effort and reward. Welfare was begun in the 1930s to help widows with children, whose plight, as Russell Baker’s memoir ‘Growing Up’ showed, was often dismal. But when welfare became a mass program to subsidize mothers who didn’t work and to excuse fathers from responsibility for their actions, it became wildly unpopular. Bill Clinton recognized this when he signed welfare reform in 1996... Barack Obama, who has chosen to live his adult life in university precincts, sees... Americans generally as victims who need his help, people who would be better off dependent on government than on their own. Most American voters don’t want to see themselves that way and resent this condescension.” — political analyst Michael Barone

6/13/2007: Vaclav Klaus on Global Warming

Common sense when regarding “Global Warming” comes from Vaclav Klaus, who introduces Four Questions for the thinking person (not to be confused with Al Gore,
Barry Hussein Obama, or George W. Bush). He states:

“Let us focus on science and cost-benefit rather than silly emotional appeal.

“I ask myself several questions. Let’s put them in the proper sequence:

“Is global warming a reality?

“If it is a reality, is it man-made?

“If it is a reality, is it a problem? Will the people in the world, and now I have to say “globally” be better-off or worse-off due to small increases of global temperature?

“If it is a reality, and if it is a problem, can men prevent it or stop it? Can any reasonable cost-benefit analysis justify anything within the range of current proposals to be done just now?

“Surprisingly, we can say yes, with some degree of probability, only to the first question. [Since this was written, the degree of probability related to the response to the first question has deceased significantly] To the remaining three, my answer is no. And I am not alone in saying that. We are, however, still more or less the silent or silenced majority.”

2/26/2010: Is the Dismal Science Really a Science? by Russ Roberts

Some macroeconomists say if we just study the numbers long enough we’ll be able to design better policy. That’s like the sign in the bar: Free Beer Tomorrow.

For an economist, these are the best of times and the worst of times. We live in the best of times because everyone wants to understand what happened to the economy and what’s going to happen next.

Is the mess we’re in a market failure or a government failure? Is the stimulus plan working? Would tax cuts for small business spur employment? When will the job market improve? Is inflation coming? Do deficits matter?

So many questions and so little in the way of answers. And so it is the worst of times for economists. There is no consensus on the cause of the crisis or the best way forward.

There were Nobel Laureates who thought the original stimulus package should have been twice as big. And there are those who blame it for keeping unemployment high. Some economists warn of hyperinflation while others tell us not to worry.

It makes you wonder why people call it the Nobel Prize in Economic Science. After all, most sciences make progress. Nobody in medicine wants to bring back lead goblets. Sir Isaac Newton understood a lot about gravity. But Albert Einstein taught us more.

But in economics, theories that were once discredited surge back into favor. John Maynard Keynes and the view that government spending can create prosperity seem immortal. I thought stagflation had put a stake in the heart of this idea back in the 1970s. Suddenly, he’s a genius once again. F.A. Hayek, Keynes’s more laissez-faire sparring partner, is drawing interest. There are various monetarists to choose from, too. Which paradigm is the “right” way to think about the boom and the bust? Or are they all wrong?

I once thought econometrics — the application of statistics to economic questions — would settle these disputes and the truth would out. Econometrics is often used to measure the independent impact of one variable holding the rest of the relevant factors constant. But I’ve come to believe there are too many factors we don’t have data on, too many connections between the variables we don’t understand and can’t model or identify.

I’ve started asking economists if they can name a study that applied sophisticated econometrics to a controversial policy issue where the study was so well done that one side’s proponents had to admit they were wrong. I don’t know of any. One economist told me that in general my point was well taken, but that his own work (of course!) had been decisive in settling a particular dispute.

Perhaps what we’re really doing is confirming our biases. Ed Leamer, a professor of economics at UCLA, calls it “faith-based” econometrics. When the debate is over $2 trillion in additional government spending vs. zero, we’ve stopped being scientists and become philosophers. Do we want to be more like France with a bigger role for government, or less like France?

Facts and evidence still matter. And economists have learned some things that have stood the test of time and that we almost all agree on — the general connection between the money supply and inflation, for example. But the arsenal of the modern econometrician is vastly overrated as a diviner of truth. Nearly all economists accept the fundamental principles of microeconomics — that incentives matter, that trade creates prosperity — even if we disagree on the implications for public policy. But the business cycle and the ability to steer the economy out of recession may be beyond us.

The defenders of modern macroeconomics argue that if we just study the economy long enough, we’ll soon be able to model it accurately and design better policy. Soon. That reminds me of the permanent sign in the bar: Free Beer Tomorrow.

We should face the evidence that we are no better today at predicting tomorrow than we were yesterday. Eighty years after the Great Depression we still argue about what caused it and why it ended.

If economics is a science, it is more like biology than physics. Biologists try to understand the relationships in a complex system. That’s hard enough. But they can’t tell you what will happen with any precision to the population of a particular species of frog if rainfall goes up this year in a particular rain forest. They might not even be able to count the number of frogs right now with any exactness.

We have the same problems in economics. The economy is a complex system, our data are imperfect and our models inevitably fail to account for all the interactions.

The bottom line is that we should expect less of economists. Economics is a powerful tool, a lens for organizing one’s thinking about the complexity of the world around us. That should be enough. We should be honest about what we know, what we don’t know and what we may never know. Admitting that publicly is the first step toward respectability.

Mr. Roberts is a research fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, professor of economics at George Mason University and a distinguished scholar in the Mercatus Center.

Kingdoms: Set aside justice, then, and what are kingdoms but great bands of brigands? For what are brigands’ bands but little kingdoms? For in brigandage the hands of the underlings are directed by the commander, the confederacy of them is sworn together, and the pillage is shared by law among them. And if those ragamuffins grow up to be able enough to keep forts, build habitations, possess cities, and conquer adjoining nations, then their government is no longer called brigandage, but graced with the eminent name of a kingdom, given and gotten not because they have left their practices but because they use them without danger of law. Elegant and excellent was that pirate’s answer to the great Macedonian Alexander, who had taken him; the king, asking him how he durst molest the seas so, he replied with a free spirit: “How darest thou molest the whole earth? But because I do it only with a little ship, I am called brigand: thou doing it with a great navy art called emperor.” — St. Augustine, City of God, Book IV [410 A.D.]

2/9/2010: CalPERS needs honesty with its ‘facts’

The California Public Employee Retirement System has launched a public relations campaign intended to tone down the rhetoric in the increasingly raucous debate over public employee pensions.

Speaking at the first of two CalPERS-sponsored “California Retirement Dialogue” forums, pension board President Robert Feckner said the goal is to “separate fact from fiction.”

But the facts CalPERS has trotted out so far do more to distort than clarify the issue.

For example, CalPERS’ official Web site says the average retirement of all fund retirees is $2,101 a month, or a modest $25,212 a year.

That’s a dishonest figure. [by the way, these “modest” pension amounts do not include the cost of lifetime, gold-plated health insurance benefits for every one of those retired government employees; they need have worked only five years to be eligible for lifetime health insurance benefits. An acquaintance of mine (already in his mid-50’s) was offered a job at one of the Cal State campuses and the lure of lifetime medical benefits after only five years of work were used as a recruiting tool.]

It includes an unknown number of local, state and school district employees who worked as few as five years in public service, the minimum number of years required to be vested in the CalPERS system.

It also includes employees who retired before 1999, when the Legislature passed Senate Bill 400, the bill that substantially boosted benefit levels retroactively and prospectively for all state workers and pegged those benefits to a worker’s single-highest year’s pay.

Local governments adopted similar enhancements. In many cases, those were even richer than the state benefits.

Any honest effort to separate “fact from fiction” would separate obligations for post-1999 retirees from pre-1999 retirees. It would also separate pensioners who worked full careers in public service - that is, 30 years or more - from those who worked just five or 10 years.

An honest appraisal would also separate the public safety retirees, police, firefighters and prison guards from all other categories of workers.

Safety workers enjoy the most generous pensions available to almost any government workers in the country. Most retire in their early 50s with 90 percent of pay.

The average annual pension for all prison guard retirees is $36,000 per year, 40 percent higher than the average for all CalPERS pensioners. California Highway Patrol retirees collect $59,000 per year on average, more than twice the average.

An honest appraisal of public employee pensions would include a discussion of the actuarial assumptions, particularly the 7.75 percent rate of return on investments that CalPERS predicts.

David Crane, the governor’s economic adviser, says that assumption is overly optimistic.

Speaking at a seminar last August, CalPERS chief actuary Ron Seeling said, “We are facing decades without significant turnarounds in assets, decades of unsustainable pension costs.”

Seeling was not among the panelists chosen to speak at the CalPERS forum. Why not?

Rob Feckner is right. It’s time to separate fact from fiction but to do that, CalPERS needs to facilitate an honest dialogue with real numbers.

1/15/2010: Where to Cut, and How

State and local governments have been hard hit by the current depression. What to do?

Cut.

But where?

Well, legislatures could simply repeal all increases and programs starting with the most recent, going back month by month, year by year, to nix spending until total spending dips below current revenue. Legislatures around the country should go into sessions of repeal.

Or they could target endemic over-spending. According to a January Cato Institute Tax and Budget Bulletin, one area of over-spending in need of tackling is “Employee Compensation in State and Local Governments.”

According to the bulletin’s author, Chris Edwards, there are several distinct indicators that demonstrate that government workers are generally overpaid.

Comparisons of compensation between state and local workers and private sector workers show a 1.45 ratio, with government workers garnering nearly half again as much as private sector workers.

The percentage of government employees to receive benefit packages over salary is also significantly higher than private sector laborers.

Further, Edwards notes, “data show that the average quit rate in the state and local workforce is just one-third the rate in the private sector. This suggests that state and local pay is higher than needed to attract qualified workers.”

So, rational employers — that is, the citizenry — would start there, first by freezing wages and new hires, then by decreasing benefits and reining in profligate promises in retirement packages.

This is Common Sense. I’m Paul Jacob.

[Sounds like my platform on spending]

1/10/2010: Golden No Longer by George Will

WASHINGTON — Dalton Trumbo (1905-1976) was a hero to the American left, partly because of his 1939 anti-war novel “Johnny Got His Gun.” Trumbo’s title modified the lyric “Johnny get your gun” from the World War I song “Over There.” Trumbo’s “Johnny” is horribly maimed in that war. Now we need a novel titled “Berkeley Got Its Liberalism.” Pending that, we have Tad Friend’s report, in the Jan. 4 New Yorker, on maimed Berkeley.

California, a laboratory of liberalism, is spiraling downward, driven by a huge budget deficit. So the University of California system’s budget was cut 20 percent. Then the system increased in-state student fees 32 percent to ... $10,302. But that is still 70 percent below student costs at Stanford and other private institutions in California that Berkeley considers no better than it is.

Last September, Friend reports, 5,000 Berkeley employees and students rallied in Sproul Plaza, scene of protests that ignited the 1960s and helped make Ronald Reagan governor. Some protesters, says Friend, were “naked except for signs that read ‘BUDGET TRANSPARENCY.’” At an indoor meeting, a “student facilitator” used a projection screen to summarize proposals, which included: “rolling strikes”; “nationalize all universities”; “socialist revolution”; “a tent city in Sacramento”; “create a shadow Board of Regents”; “occupy Wells Fargo Bank in downtown Oakland”; “worker-student control of the university”; “strike in March”; “act now, f — - March”; “capitalism is bad.” Toward the end of the seven-hour meeting, participants shouted “General strike! General strike!”

In its impact on the institution, and on students trying to grip the lower rungs of the ladder of social mobility, the UC system’s crisis is sad. This academic year, only one-sixth of the normal number of new faculty have been hired at Berkeley. The Cal State system — a cut below the UC campuses — will enroll 40,000 fewer students this year than last. But because the professoriate is overwhelmingly liberal, there is rough justice in its having to live with liberalism’s consequences, which include this:

Kevin Starr, author of an eight-volume — so far — history of the (formerly) Golden State, says California is “on the verge” of becoming something without an American precedent — “a failed state.” William Voegeli, writing in the Claremont Review of Books, tartly says that “Rome wasn’t sacked in a day, and California didn’t become Argentina overnight.” Indeed.

It took years for liberalism’s redistributive itch to create an income tax so steeply progressive that it prompts the flight from the state of wealth-creators: “Between 1990 and 2007,” Voegeli writes, “some 3.4 million more Americans moved from California to one of the other 49 states than moved to California from another state.”

And the state’s income tax — liberalism codified — intensifies the effects of business cycles on the state’s revenue stream: During booms, the stream surges and stimulates government spending; during contractions, revenues dwindle but the new government spending continues. Voegeli says that if California’s spending had grown no faster than population growth and inflation from 1992 to 2006, it would have been $65 billion less in 2006, and per capita government outlays then would have equaled not those of Somalia or Mississippi but of Oregon, which is hardly “a hellish paradigm of Social Darwinism.”

It took years for liberalism’s mania for micromanaging life with entangling regulations to make California’s once creative economy resemble Gulliver immobilized by the Lilliputians’ many threads. The state, which between 1990 and 2007 lost 26 percent of its factory jobs and 35 percent of its high-tech manufacturing jobs, ranks behind only New York, another of liberalism’s laboratories, in the number of outward-bound moving vans.

It took years for compassionate liberalism to make California’s welfare menu contribute to the state becoming an importer of Mexico’s poverty. It took years for servile liberalism to turn the state into what Voegeli calls a “unionocracy,” run by and for unionized public employees, such as public safety employees who can retire at 50 and receive 90 percent of the final year’s pay for life.

Friend reports that when the seven-hour meeting ended, the protest moved to the UC president’s house. Two buses carried “some hundred Berkeley students and members of AFSCME.” Perfect.

The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees is one reason why California’s government employees — their numbers grew 24 percent between 1997 and 2007 — are the nation’s most highly compensated. And why California’s economy is being suffocated by the weight of government. And why the state’s budget has little left over for Berkeley.

1/6/2010: Willie’s World (1/3/2010) by Willie Brown [...and who would better know?]

...If we as a state want to make a New Year’s resolution, I suggest taking a good look at the California we have created. From our out-of-sync tax system to our out-of-control civil service, it’s time for politicians to begin an honest dialogue about what we’ve become.

Take the civil service.

The system was set up so politicians like me couldn’t come in and fire the people (relatives) hired by the guy they beat and replace them with their own friends and relatives.

Over the years, however, the civil service system has changed from one that protects jobs to one that runs the show.

The deal used to be that civil servants were paid less than private sector workers in exchange for an understanding that they had job security for life.

But we politicians, pushed by our friends in labor, gradually expanded pay and benefits to private-sector levels while keeping the job protections and layering on incredibly generous retirement packages that pay ex-workers almost as much as current workers.

Talking about this is politically unpopular and potentially even career suicide for most officeholders. But at some point, someone is going to have to get honest about the fact that 80 percent of the state, county and city budget deficits are due to employee costs.

Either we do something about it at the ballot box, or a judge will do something about in Bankruptcy Court. And if you think I’m kidding, just look at Vallejo...

Read more

[Willie Lewis Brown, Jr. (born March 20, 1934) is an American politician of the Democratic Party. He served over thirty years in the California State Assembly, spending fifteen years as its Speaker, and afterward served as mayor of San Francisco...]

1/2/2010: And since the Supreme Court would never let Chicago ban free speech, establish an official religion, or conduct other “experiments” on the First Amendment, why should the Second Amendment receive any less respect? — Damon W. Root

1/1/2010: I support Glenn Beck’s In or Out 2010 Pledge (my additional comments are in italics)

1. I believe in a balanced budget and therefore will vote for a freeze in government spending until that goal is realized. I will only approve a significant roll back in spending to the levels that existed in 1998, adjusted for inflation and (maybe) population growth.

2. I believe government should not increase the financial burden on its citizenry during difficult economic times therefore I will oppose all tax increases until our economy has rebounded. I will also propose and fight for the abolition of income taxes.

3. I believe more than four decades of U.S. dependence on foreign oil is a travesty therefore I will support an energy plan that calls for immediately increasing usage of all domestic resources including nuclear energy, natural gas, and coal as necessary. I also believe that we should drill for oil domestically. We have more oil in the US than Saudi Arabia. We can both drill for oil and protect the environment at the same time.

4. I believe in the sovereignty and security of our country and therefore will support measures to close our borders except for designated immigration points so we will know who is entering and why and I will vehemently oppose any measure giving another country, the United Nations, or any other entity, power over U.S. citizens. I agree. We decide who enters; anyone is free to leave. The United Nations is a socialist organization that has as its principal goal the transfer of wealth from western nations, mostly the United States, to the third-world governments, most of which are no more than kleptocracies run by tyrants.

5. I believe the United States of America is the greatest country on earth and therefore will not apologize for policies or actions which have served to free more and feed more people around the world than any other nation on the planet. Amen. However, I believe we should keep the words of Thomas Jefferson in mind: “peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all nations, entangling alliances with none.” We should not be the world’s policemen and we do not owe the world anything.

12/30/2009: Are Taxes the Root of Unhappiness?
States with the highest taxes also rank as the unhappiest.

[Yet another reason why we must reduce the tax burden in California; I guess it’s a big surprise that high taxes make people unhappy]

...The study suggests that quality of life heavily influences happiness. This may seem obvious, but until this study, social scientists have struggled to develop a model that supports this hypothesis. Now we know that people who say they’re satisfied with their lives aren’t just delusional or overly optimistic, and people who say they’re unsatisfied aren’t just pessimists. People have legitimate reasons to be happy or unhappy.

And well, high taxes seem to be a big reason — -ostensibly an even bigger reason than weather given that California is one of the unhappiest states and inclement Louisiana is the happiest. Further, considering how much New York’s crime rate has dropped and schools have improved in the last decade, taxes seem to overwhelm even these two critical factors in the happiness equation. According to the Tax Foundation 2008 analysis, three of the top five unhappiest states — New York, Connecticut and New Jersey — have the highest state-local tax burdens. On the other hand, four of the top five happiest states — Louisiana, Florida, Tennessee and Arizona — are among the states with the lowest state-local tax burdens. True, correlation doesn’t prove causation, and high taxes alone don’t always make people miserable, but there’s something going on here...

[Read the entire article]

12/23/2009: The Big-Spending, High-Taxing, Lousy-Services Paradigm
California taxpayers don’t get much bang for their bucks.
by William Voegeli

In 1956, the economist Charles Tiebout provided the framework that best explains why people vote with their feet. The “consumer-voter,” as Tiebout called him, challenges government officials to “ascertain his wants for public goods and tax him accordingly.” Each jurisdiction offers its own package of public goods, along with a particular tax burden needed to pay for those goods. As a result, “the consumer-voter moves to that community whose local government best satisfies his set of preferences.” In selecting a jurisdiction, the mobile consumer-voter is, in effect, choosing a club to join based on the benefits that it offers and the dues that it charges.

America’s federal system allows, at the state level, for 50 different clubs to join. At first glance, the states seem to differ between those that bundle numerous high-quality public benefits with high taxes and those that offer packages of low benefits and low taxes. These alternatives, of course, define the basic argument between liberals and conservatives over the ideal size and scope of government...

It’s not surprising, then, that an intense debate rages over which model is more satisfactory and sustainable. What is surprising is the growing evidence that the low-benefit, low-tax alternative succeeds not only on its own terms but also according to the criteria used by defenders of high benefits and high taxes. Whatever theoretical claims are made for imposing high taxes to provide generous government benefits, the practical reality is that these public goods are, increasingly, neither public nor good: their beneficiaries are mostly the service providers themselves, and their quality is poor. [emphasis added] For evidence, look to the two largest states in the nation, which are fine representatives of the liberal and conservative alternatives...

State and local government expenditures as a whole were 46.8 percent higher in California than in Texas in 2005–06 — $10,070 per person compared with $6,858. And Texas not only spends its citizens’ dollars more effectively; it emphasizes priorities that are more broadly beneficial. In 2005–06, per-capita spending on transportation was 5.9 percent lower in California than in Texas, and highway expenditures in particular were 9.5 percent lower, a discovery both plausible and infuriating to any Los Angeles commuter losing the will to live while sitting in yet another freeway traffic jam. With tax revenues scarce and voters strongly opposed to surrendering more of their income, Texas officials devote a large share of their expenditures to basic services that benefit the most people. In California, by contrast, more and more spending consists of either transfer payments to government dependents (as in welfare, health, housing, and community development programs) or generous payments to government employees and contractors (reflected in administrative costs, pensions, and general expenditures). Both kinds of spending weaken California’s appeal to consumer-voters, the first because redistributive transfer payments are the least publicly beneficial type of public good, and the second because the dues paid to Club California purchase benefits that, increasingly, are enjoyed by the staff instead of the members.

Californians have the best possible reason to believe that the state’s public sector is not holding up its end of the bargain: clear evidence that it used to do a better job. Bill Watkins, executive director of the Economic Forecast Project at the University of California at Santa Barbara, has calculated that once you adjust for population growth and inflation, the state government spent 26 percent more in 2007–08 than in 1997–98. Back then, “California had teachers. Prisoners were in jail. Health care was provided for those with the least resources.” Today, Watkins asks, “Are the roads 26 percent better? Are schools 26 percent better? What is 26 percent better?”

The steady deterioration of California’s public services hasn’t gone unnoticed. Shortly after his stunning ascension to the governor’s office in 2003, Arnold Schwarzenegger established an advisory commission, the California Performance Review (CPR), to recommend ways to make governance in California smarter, cheaper, and better. The commission labored through 2004 before delivering a doorstop report with more than 1,200 recommendations for streamlining this and consolidating that, along with an assessment that implementing the full list of changes could save California $32 billion over the first five years.

And then . . . nothing, really. The 2,500-page report was “dead on arrival,” according to Bill Whalen of the Hoover Institution, “because it was too complicated for voters to rally behind and legislators didn’t want to see it enacted.” Citizen Schwarzenegger may have assumed that his personal star power and the CPR recommendations’ plodding good sense would make a politically irresistible combination. Such reckoning failed to account for the formidable ability of even the most obscure and otiose governmental body to hunker down, defend its turf, and outlast mere politicians.

[Read more and get angry]

12/18/2009: America’s Best Days
66% Favor Smaller Government With Fewer Services, Lower Taxes

Sixty-six percent (66%) of U.S. voters prefer a smaller government with fewer services and lower taxes over a more active government with more services and higher taxes.

That’s the second highest finding of the year: In August at the height of the congressional town hall controversies over the health care plan, 70% felt that way.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 22% prefer a government with more services and higher taxes. Eleven percent (11%) aren’t sure which is best.

Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Republicans and 63% of voters not affiliated with either major party like a smaller government better. Democrats are more narrowly divided: 51% favor a smaller government, but 37% opt for a larger, more activist government.

Sixty-five percent (65%) of liberals chose a government with more services and higher taxes. Eighty-six percent (86%) of conservatives think a smaller government is better.

Sixty-two percent (62%) of all voters say tax cuts are a better way than more government spending to create jobs and fight unemployment. Only 21% say additional stimulus spending is a more effective tool.

Voters overwhelmingly believe that the bigger problem in the United States is the unwillingness of politicians to control government spending rather than voters’ unwillingness to pay enough in taxes...

[Read the entire article]

Why does California have
12% of the population
of the United States and more
than 30% of the welfare recipients?

It’s time to admit that public education operates like a planned economy, a bureaucratic system in which everybody’s role is spelled out in advance and there are few incentives for innovation and productivity. It’s no surprise that our school system doesn’t improve: It more resembles the communist economy than our own market economy. — Albert Shanker, President of the American Federation of Teachers

“Do not consider Collectivists as sincere but deluded idealists. The proposal to enslave some men for the sake of others is not an ideal; brutality is not idealistic, no matter what its purpose. Do not ever say that the desire to do good by force is a good motive. Neither power-lust nor stupidity are good motives.” — Ayn Rand, The Vigil

 “Let each citizen remember at the moment he is offering his vote that he is not making a present or a compliment to please an individual — or at least that he ought not so to do; but that he is executing one of the most solemn trusts in human society for which he is accountable to God and his country.” — Samuel Adams

“History affords us many instances of the ruin of states, by the prosecution of measures ill suited to the temper and genius of their people. The ordaining of laws in favor of one part of the nation, to the prejudice and oppression of another, is certainly the most erroneous and mistaken policy. An equal dispensation of protection, rights, privileges, and advantages, is what every part is entitled to, and ought to enjoy.” — Benjamin Franklin

The State can protect and promote the interests of its sick, or potentially sick, citizens in one of two ways only: either by coercing physicians, and other medical and paramedical personnel, to serve patients — as State-owned slaves in the last analysis, or by creating economic, moral, and political circumstances favorable to a plentiful supply of competent physicians and effective drugs. — Thomas Szasz, “The Right to Health” [1969]

 

About Dale F. Ogden
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Who Killed California?
National Affairs, Fall 2009
by
Troy Senik

The story of California has always been a great American tale of triumph over long odds. Since its entry into the Union, in the aftermath of war and the midst of gold fever, the state has seemed an improbable colossus. But again and again, California has made its way through hours of challenge – not only surviving intact, but emerging as a model for the rest of the nation.

...And through a series of social, political, and economic experiments, California has acted as America’s foremost laboratory of innovation, trying out ideas the country as a whole would go on to adopt. In the 1960s under Governor Pat Brown, the state offered a model of modernization, building the most advanced education and transportation infrastructures in the nation. Under Brown’s successor, Ronald Reagan, it offered a model of conservative governance that would go on to transform American politics. Hollywood has made California a crucial part of America’s cultural identity, and Silicon Valley has put it at the heart of our vision of the future. For many decades now, Americans have seen California as a harbinger of promising things to come.

Today, however, California has become a warning sign. Beset by economic disaster and political paralysis, the state is in the midst of a systemic crisis. And while the meltdown has certainly been accelerated by the recession of the past two years, its causes involve two decades of poor judgment, reckless mismanagement, and irresponsibility. How California got into this mess has a lot to teach the rest of the country; how it gets out will say a great deal about America’s prospects.

...Unemployment is over 11%, and a recent survey of corporate CEOs ranked California the worst state in the country in which to do business. It is losing native-born ­citizens faster than any other state.

To put the effects of these trends in perspective, from 2004 to 2007 more people left California for Texas and Oklahoma than came west from those states to escape the Dust Bowl in the 1930s. California is in the midst of a man-made disaster.

How could things get so bad? The story of California’s decline is a tragedy of political dysfunction, misguided ideology, interest-group ­politics, and willful blindness.

...As Californians contemplate next year’s gubernatorial race, it is increasingly clear that the state is at a crossroads. One path before it, essentially an extension of the status quo, would mean continued decline in the fashion of states like New Jersey or Michigan. The other path would be to pursue a bold reformist agenda, along the lines of what Rudy Giuliani accomplished during his time as mayor of New York City. Without a sharp turn toward freer markets, a smaller public sector, and more responsive and responsible government, California may not be able to save itself from catastrophe. But whether that charge will be led — and by whom — remains an open question.

[Read the entire Essay]

10/19/2009: Rules Made to Be Broken
by Thomas G. Donlan

ECONOMISTS AND POLITICAL scientists identify a big problem with government regulation of business. They call it “regulatory capture,” meaning that regulators often do not enforce their own rules because they have close relationships with those they regulate.

It’s often told as the economic version of the Patty Hearst syndrome, in which a weak victim is overwhelmed by powerful captors and comes to cooperate with the oppressors. In regulatory economics, weak public servants are said to be overwhelmed by the rich and powerful economic interests they are supposed to control.

The doctrine of regulatory capture covers behavior as simple as bribing the tax collector or the customs agent and as complex as a national political campaign. It applies to city councils issuing streetcar franchises, to state public utilities commissioners, to tax-writing committees of Congress and to the myriad federal agencies regulating every aspect of commerce.

Anyone who spends a few months in Washington, D.C. — or even a few months reading about politics — will see many inadvertent references to the theory of regulatory capture. If, for current example, the Senate Finance Committee puts forth a health-care reform bill without a public option, many say it’s the result of the health-insurance industry’s campaign contributions.

In such common use, however, the doctrine leaves out the possibility of effective persuasion. A lobbyist visits a congressman or a commissioner, then the commissioner adopts a policy supporting the lobbyists’ clients. This is not proof. Indeed, with a government of, by and for the people, it is hardly improper to petition the government for a redress of grievances. It is a right guaranteed by that pesky old First Amendment, even if it is regulatory capture.

Where’s the Public Interest?

George Stigler of the University of Chicago was one of the first to coin the idea of regulatory capture. In his speech on winning the 1982 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences he recalled his earlier work and asked, “Why does the state engage in its regulatory activities?

The answer, he said, “seemed to lie much less in the theorems of welfare economics or the prescriptions of traditional political science, than in the systematic examination of the self-interest of the various participants.”

Another Chicagoan, Richard Posner, summed up the theory more bluntly: “Regulation is not about the public interest at all, but is a process, by which interest groups seek to promote their private interest....Over time, regulatory agencies come to be dominated by the industries regulated.”

And regulated industries come to be more reliably profitable than those in which marginal cost and marginal price are driven together by market forces. Regulation raises profits by raising barriers to competition, especially barriers to new competitors. With supply thus made scarce, the regulators then ignore consumers, raising prices beyond what the market would dictate.

Railroads used the Interstate Commerce Commission to organize and prevent rate wars; airlines did the same with the Civil Aeronautics Board. Abolishing those agencies did more for consumers’ interests than creating them ever could.

You Break It, You Buy It

In practice, regulatory capture works all too well. A government that takes responsibility for the operation of an industry must sustain the industry. Ordinary monopolies achieved the old-fashioned competitive way, with high quality or low prices, remain vulnerable to new technology or better marketing. Government price controls and service limits go hand in hand forever — or at least until the revolution comes.

Consider the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Although it does not (yet) directly administer prices of pharmaceuticals, medical devices and food additives, it does subject them to a long process of testing for safety and efficacy, and it regulates manufacturing in the industries under it. Done in the name of public safety, the testing regime also raises a formidable barrier to new entrants. The FDA finances its activities with fees on those it regulates. The benefits and costs are clearer if we note that the drug industry begged for higher fees to finance faster review of new drugs and devices.

Interesting charges about the review process emerged from the FDA recently. The former administrator allegedly knuckled under to congressional pressure last year and approved a medical device despite serious reservations among the agency’s scientific staff. The congressmen, all from New Jersey, had received campaign contributions from the device manufacturer, based in Hackensack, N.J.

Making fun of New Jersey corruption is a national pastime, but its ways are not so mysterious or unusual. A form of regulatory capture may have been at work.

The congressmen were doing what too many of our elected tribunes think is their main job — cutting paths through red tape on behalf of their constituents. Anyone who would call a congressman for help with a missing Social Security check should not be dismayed if Hackensack entrepreneurs call on their senators and representatives for help with a missing license to make profits.

Administrative Capture

One of this year’s winners of the Nobel Prize in economics has also contributed to our uncomfortable understanding of government power and the rule of regulation.

Reacting to the economic notion of state and market as alternatives, Elinor Ostrom observed that people often provide a third way. She is a political scientist at Indiana University, and she observed the general success of such voluntary associations as churches and charities in performing welfare functions, parent associations governing schools behind the scenes and trade associations imposing professional standards.

In a variant of regulatory capture, such groups produce public goods without government management, despite a presumption among many economists that markets fail to produce public goods.

A lesson from the new laureate is that it’s usually not necessary or desirable to have governments substitute for markets. The spontaneous order of markets reflects people acting rationally; government regulators add nothing to the process.

10/14/2009: Do States Need to Act More Like Brands?
State governments should think like marketers, not administrators.

Do you appreciate your state? Feel like you get a decent return on your tax dollar? Would you recommend your state to friends as a place to live or, conversely, as a place to avoid? Is your state ascending or descending as a brand?

States are already “branded” by their histories, economies and populations. California has great weather, beautiful scenery and tons of diversity. It’s the land of the Gold Rush, Silicon Valley and Hollywood. Minnesota has icy winters, beautiful lakes and an educated work force. Florida and Arizona are havens for retirees, vacationers and snowbirds. You can look at a map and fill out the brands.

Several states are now at a crossroads because their historic positions no longer ring true and their futures are cloudy. If we think of citizens as consumers, the “benefits” provided by the brands may look quite different than they have in the past. “Acquiring” and “retaining” the folks who generate sales (i.e., taxes) may take major change. Growing a healthy customer base will require state governments to think more about what their customers need than about administering policy and adding or maintaining services. Like any brands facing a budget shortfall, states will need to make tradeoffs.

Let’s take my state, California. “The Golden State” is a hotbed for technology, entertainment and innovation. California attracts people from around the world, even though it may have put “the fun in dysfunction” (according to Sports Illustrated, writing about the Oakland Raiders, but if the shoe fits ... ). With a high rate of foreclosures, a large and inefficient bureaucracy, high and inequitable taxes, a broken education system and a monstrous budget shortfall, the California brand is in trouble. Fixing it is hard work, since good weather can only take you so far. If brand basics like reliable public education, the ability to attract and retain businesses, and some semblance of government efficiency don’t take hold, the tax base will continue to decrease, the budget will get worse and the problems will become more intractable. The beacon of opportunity will morph into a declining brand, coasting on former glories.

Like any brand, a state that can’t retain its most valuable customers will inevitably decline. Lose your business base, job generation engines and revenue growth, and you don’t have a good long-term outlook. For California, even the presence of Stanford University, Hollywood, Google (GOOG - news - people) and Sand Hill Road can’t stop that decline. Fifty years ago, Michigan was a hot brand. Look where it is now. Unlike brands, which can decline over a matter of years, states that don’t meet their citizens’ needs will decline over decades.

If a state’s brand promise becomes too overpriced and loses its competitive edge, consumers and businesses will inevitably move to states that have better offers. Once citizens start moving elsewhere, states — like brand managers — can either change and fight for customers, or dig in their heels and hold the line.

Don’t get me wrong, my family and I enjoy California and appreciate everything that it has to offer. But of all of the states we’ve lived in, California has the worst “consumer acquisition pain” of any of them. The forms, regulations, city, county and government bureaucracies and general lack of helpfulness combined with the high cost of living made the move more painful than earlier moves to Minnesota, Ohio and Connecticut. I can only imagine what it would be like to move a business.

States like California, which have been on top for a long time, need to go back to the basics of what made them great. They will need to innovate in order to acquire and retain customers like Michigan did in the 1950s and California and other Western states did in the 1990s. If they don’t, they run the risk of facing the problems that now plague Michigan. Leaders need to think about their states’ long-term brand health and hopefully, stay focused on the benefits that matter (such as job creation and education) rather than short-term fixes (like using across-the-board cuts to help balance the budget).

States can either acknowledge that the marketplace has changed and evolve accordingly, or keep on trucking with the old model and wonder why they are losing customers to other, more nimble states. Even those that have worse weather.

Mike Linton was most recently the chief marketing officer at eBay. Previously, he was the first CMO at Best Buy. He joined the electronics retailer in 1999 from James River, where he worked as a vice president and general manager. Linton started his career in brand management at Procter & Gamble.

Deregulate Labor Markets
by Richard A. Epstein

On the economic front, the good news is that the Dow Jones industrial average is inching back toward 10,000 — only 30% off its all-time high. The bad news is that the unemployment rates are inching past 10% with no improvement in sight — unless, we are assured, government intervention can halt the downward spiral.

This point has not been lost on the Obama administration, whose de facto chief economic guru David Axelrod, assures us that “all additional potential strategies for accelerating job creation” are on the table. Axelrod may heed the advice of New York Times columnist Bob Herbert, who invokes Bill Clinton’s Secretary of Labor, Robert Reich’s fresh ideas for “igniting” job growth. The centerpiece of their program is the labor-market version of Cash for Clunkers: a $3,000 credit to small businesses to create jobs.

This Utopian proposal only makes matters worse. Everything turns on what kinds of jobs are created. Unfortunately, all labor-market subsidies run into two insuperable obstacles in both good times and bad. First, a wily employer could receive a subsidy for jobs that would be created in any event. The transfer payment to the lucky employer thus imposes an additional tax burden on everyone else, without any offsetting gain. Or, worse, the subsidy will create a shiny new job — albeit of little or no social value.

In line with today’s fashionable Keynesian babble, only force-fed government jobs are said to exhibit a vaunted “multiplier” effect, by spurring additional economic activity up and down the distribution chain. But any new private-sector job would have exactly the same effect, and the added virtue of producing something of value. Alas, all public subsidies crowd out good private jobs and create useless public ones. In the long term, they reduce the overall wealth base on the nation, which in turn contracts both public revenues and private economic activity. We cannot solve 10% unemployment by creating 12% unemployment!

There is a better course of action for labor market reform, just as there is for health care reform. David Hyman and I have recently argued that the current health care debate is marred by the fashionable insistence of piling new regulations on an already overheated regulatory system. As libertarians know, government sages should first direct their fire to reduce market drag by-shudder! — deregulation. Yet on a matter that intersects health and labor, Democratic health care reform proposals predictably protect collective bargaining rights in all health care markets, thereby perpetuating highly inefficient labor monopolies.

That interventionist mindset, writ large, is killing labor markets today. This past July, a third 70-cent increase has raised the minimum wage from $5.15 to $7.25 per hour in just over two-years. Why is anyone surprised that this 40%-plus increase caused a current sharp increase in teenage unemployment that hits minority males especially hard? The minimum wage only directly impacts the bottom tier of the economy. Strengthening the anti-discrimination law protection for women makes matters worse across the board, at a time when men in virtually every age group and occupation have taken a harder hit than women.

Far worse, just keeping the misguided Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA) on the legislative agenda sets up a massive disincentive for firms to hire new workers. Who wants to expand a workforce in the face of the potential double whammy of a card check and compulsory contract arbitration, capable of sending any firm into bankruptcy? Finally, the massive confusion over health care reform is yet another stealth job killer. The prospect of new employer mandates and special taxes make it prudent to trim workforces or to avoid creating new businesses at all.

Yet look as you may, none of the administration’s current champions of job creation will lift a finger to take the heavy foot of Uncle Sam off the throats off the private employers, who are the only persons who can sustain job growth. Perhaps our government wizards fear that deregulation cuts budgets and reduces their power. But their dubious motivations are not the core of this debate. The great curse of the current downturn is to delude well-intentioned people to cling to the miraculous idea that policies known to be dangerous in good times somehow become social necessities in bad times. Sorry, but there is no way to ease the pain of labor markets without a massive dose of deregulation. Shame on the Obama administration for missing the point.

Richard A. Epstein is the James Parker Hall distinguished service professor of law, the University of Chicago; the Peter and Kirsten Bedford senior fellow at the Hoover Institution; and a visiting law professor at New York University Law School. His recent book, The Case Against the Employee Free Choice Act, is available from the Hoover Press. He writes a weekly column for Forbes.

STOP THE GOVERNMENT INSANITY!
by Michael Cloud

“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” (1) In private hands, this insanity is a vice. In government hands, it is a crime.

Private insanity hurts those who do it and those who support it. It punishes those who are responsible. Government insanity injures everyone EXCEPT those who do it and enable it. It protects those who cause and condone it while punishing the innocent.

Private insanity causes private problems and pain. Government insanity causes widespread economic and social damage and destruction. It imposes the costs and consequences on those who did NOT cause them.

This insanity is not blindness, but the refusal to see. Not deafness, but the refusal to hear. This insanity is deliberately ignoring cause and effect, action and consequence.

The cure for most forms of government insanity was discovered in 1946. It’s a short, readable book called ‘Economics in One Lesson’ by Henry Hazlitt. (2) It’s what happens when today’s politicians refuse the cure.

Government economic insanity lets Congress give the first $1 trillion in bailouts to reckless and irresponsible lenders and borrowers. To over-priced, wasteful, and uncompetitive car companies. And probably to bloated and wasteful state governments.

Government economic insanity lets Congress print or borrow money to stimulate the economy. Government economic insanity lets Congress vote for government programs to “create jobs.” Government economic insanity lets state legislatures over-charge taxpayers for roads, bridges, and other infrastructure while pretending this creates jobs.

Politicians and government officials have developed ways of re-packaging and selling the government insanity. Announcing: New, Improved Government Insanity.

RE-NAME what doesn’t work, do it again and again, and tell us we’ll get different results.

PUT DIFFERENT PEOPLE IN CHARGE of doing what doesn’t work, do it again and again, and tell us to expect different results.

SPEND MORE TAX DOLLARS, ASSIGN MORE GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES to do what doesn’t work, again and again, and expect different results.

RE-ORGANIZE AND REFORM THE DEPARTMENT that did what doesn’t work, do it again and again, and expect different results.

BELIEVE “YES, WE CAN,” do the same thing, again and again, and expect different results.

Stop the Government Insanity!

Email this issue of “Small Government News” to your family and friends. Share what you learn with your co-workers.

1. Tell them: “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”

2. Give them examples of government insanity: trade protectionism, government works projects, “jobs” programs, “stimulus” programs, and more.

3. Link them to or buy them ‘Economics In One Lesson’ by Henry Hazlitt. Ask them to take 8 minutes to read a few key pages.

4. Ask them to speak out. To inform and influence their co-workers, friends, and families.

Stop the Government Insanity! (Footnotes)

(1) This quote has been attributed to John Dryden, Albert Einstein, Rita Mae Brown, and others.

(2) ‘Economics In One Lesson’ by Henry Hazlitt explodes and refutes these fallacies and most of the economic insanities Congress is trying to sell us. Read the preface, Chapter 1: ‘The Lesson’, and Chapter 2: ‘The Broken Window.’ About 8 minutes reading:

http://www.fee.org/library/books/economics.asp

Or:

http://www.fee.org/pdf/books/Economics_in_one_lesson.pdf

Buy a copy of the book. Highlight, underline, and make notes in your copy. It’s pure gold economic sanity.

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“The right of a citizen to bear arms, in lawful defense of himself or the State, is absolute. He does not derive it from the State government. It is one of the “high powers” delegated directly to the citizen, and is excepted out of the general powers of government. A law cannot be passed to infringe upon or impair it, because it is above the law, and independent of the lawmaking power.” — Cockrum v. State [1859]

A society of free and responsible individuals who are able to form voluntary associations will solve the social dilemmas they confront through various means of self-governance. — “Elinor Ostrom’s Nobel Prize in Economics“ [October 15, 2009]

Interesting stuff at

www.dalefogden.net

 

LP1971